Divergence in Post-Pandemic Earnings Growth: Evidence from Micro Data
Introduction
The post-pandemic U.S. labor market saw a significant divergence in earnings growth across different regions. Counties that experienced the least severe impacts at the onset of the pandemic saw the fastest earnings growth. This divergence is most pronounced for lower-paid and non-managerial workers, as well as those in smaller firms.
Key Findings
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Earnings Growth by County Earnings Growth:
- Counties within the top 10 percentile of highest earnings growth saw an average increase of 35% in earnings from January 2020 to December 2021.
- Counties in the bottom 10 percentile saw only a 5% rise during the same period.
- This divergence persisted until the end of the sample period in 2021, even as labor market indicators improved.
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Labor Market Support via PPP:
- Counties with greater Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) support saw average earnings 32% higher than those with lower PPP support.
- This difference persisted until mid-2021.
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Job-Ladder Framework:
- The earnings difference between stronger and weaker labor markets is significant, with average earnings being 18% higher in counties with stronger labor markets.
- Workers moving from lower-paid to higher-paid jobs contributed significantly to earnings growth.
- Wage increases accounted for about one-third of earnings growth, while additional hours contributed approximately two-thirds on average.
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Cross-County Differences:
- Non-managerial workers experienced faster earnings growth in stronger labor markets.
- The earnings difference between lower-paid and higher-paid workers was 75% higher in counties with stronger labor markets.
- The difference between non-managerial and managerial workers was similar at 71%.
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Post-Pandemic Earnings Growth:
- On average, post-pandemic earnings growth was 15% higher for workers who switched firms compared to those who stayed.
- However, this difference was somewhat larger in counties with strong labor markets, though the magnitude was relatively small.
Conclusion
The study provides strong evidence that labor market competition drives earnings growth, particularly for lower-paid and non-managerial workers. This evidence supports the job-ladder framework and has important implications for stabilization policies.
