Coal 2023

Analysis and forecast to 2026 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policies thatwill enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31member countries,13associationcountries and beyond. IEA membercountries: IEA associationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract The global coal market has experienced a turbulent three years. Demand droppedsharply during the Covid pandemic, only to leap during the post-Covid reboundand following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, global coal demand reachedits highest level ever. Today, coal remains the largest energy source for electricitygeneration, steelmaking and cement production – maintaining a central role in theworld economy. At the same time, coal is the largest source of man-made carbondioxide(CO2)emissions,and curbing consumption is essential to meetinginternational climate targets. A historic turning point could arrive soon. The International Energy Agency’s latestprojections see coal demand peaking within this decade under today’s policysettings, primarily as a result of the structural decline in coal use in developedeconomies and a weaker economic outlook for China, which has also pledged toreach a peak in CO2emissions before 2030. However, key questions remain,including when the peak in demand will occur, at what level, and how fastconsumption will decline after that point. Since its first publication in 2011, the IEA’s annual Coal Report has served as theglobal benchmark for the medium-term forecast of coal supply, demand and trade.Its analysis also covers costs, prices and mining projects at regional and countrylevel by coal grade. Given coal’s impact on energy supply and CO2emissions,Coal 2023 is indispensable reading for those following energy and climate issues. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This International Energy Agency (IEA) publication has been prepared by the Gas,Coal and Power Markets Division (GCP), headed by Dennis Hesseling, whoprovided useful suggestions and comments throughout the process. KeisukeSadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security, provided with essentialguidance. Carlos Fernández Alvarez has led and co-ordinated the analysis. JulianKeutz, Arne Lilienkamp and Carlos Fernández Alvarez are the authors of thereport. OtherIEA colleagues provided important contributions,including YasminaAbdelilah, Heymi Bahar, Stephanie Bouckaert, Eren Çam, Louis Chambeau, JoelCouse, Laura Cozzi, Carole Etienne, Víctor García Tapia, Tim Gould, CiaránHealy, Alexandra Hegarty, Paul Hugues, Laura Marí Martínez, Gergely Molnár,Apostolos Petropoulos, Frederick Ritter and Hiroyasu Sakaguchi. Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamentalto the report. Taylor Morrison and Nicola Dragui provided invaluable supportduring the process. Thanks go also to the IEA China desk, particularly RebeccaMcKimm, Yang Biqing and Wang Yujun for their research on China. The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided production and launchsupport. Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen, acting Head of CDO, and his team:Astrid Dumond, Julia Horowitz, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Therese Walsh.Justin French-Brooks edited the report. Our gratitude goes to the Institute of Energy Economics at the University ofCologne (EWI) for sharing their extensive coal expertise and modelling insights. CRU provided invaluable data and information for this report. Thanks to GlenKurokawa for his support and suggestions. Our gratitude goes to the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB) for theirsupport. Special thanks to the international experts who have provided input during theprocessand/or reviewed the draft of the report.They include:Kevin Ball(Whiteheaven Coal), Mick Buffier (Glencore), Michael Caravaggio (EPRI), RodrigoEcheverri (Noble Resources), Nikki Fisher (Thungela Resources), Justin Flood(Delta Electricity), Patricia Naulita Lumban Gaol (Adaro), Lukazs Mazanek (PolskaGroupa Gornicza), Peter Morris (Minerals Council of Australia), Brian Ricketts (Euracoal), Hans Wilhem Schiffer (RWE), Paul