Accelerating Just Transitions for the Coal Sector

Strategies for rapid, secureand people-centred change INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gasand coal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy eficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, afordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31 member countries,13associationcountries andbeyond. IEAassociationcountries: IEA membercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundariesand to the name of anyterritory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org This study was prepared by the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks andwas designed and directed byLaura Cozzi, Director for Sustainability, Technology andOutlooks.Daniel Wetzel, Head of the Tracking Sustainable Transitions Unit andCaleighAndrewsco-ordinated the production of the report. Principal authors of the report include:Yasmine Arsalane(economic outlook, power),Tanguy de Bienassis(investment and finance),Carlos Fernández Alvarez(coal),ChristopheMcGlade(supply),Matthieu Prin(people-centred transitions),Thomas Spencer(climate andenvironment),Ryota Taniguchi(policy commitments, power),Brent Wanner(power), andPeter Zeniewski(investment).Reka KoczkaandMarina Dos Santosprovided essentialsupport. Trevor Morganprovided writing support to the report and carried editorial responsibility. Other valuable contributions were made by: Yunyou Chen, Ekko Chua, Julie Dallard, ShobhanDhir, Eric Fabozzi, Mathilde Fajardy, Bruno Idini, Nikolaos Papastefanakis, Alessio Pastore,Diana Perez Sanchez, Ryszard Popsiech, Arthur Roge, Rebecca Ruff, Gabriel Saive, MaxSchoenfisch,Leonie Staas, Jun Takashiro and Cecilia Tam. Erin Crumwas the copy-editor. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by othersenior management andnumerous colleagues within the IEA, in particular, Tim Gould, Keisuke Sadamori, Pablo Hevia-Koch, Brian Motherway, Dennis Hesseling, and Timur Gül. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing thereport and website materials, particularly Poeli Bojorquez, Curtis Brainard, Jon Custer,Hortense De Roffignac, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdem, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, IsabelleNonain-Semelin, Julie Puech, Clara Vallois and Therese Walsh. IEA’s Office of the LegalCounsel, Office of Management and Administration and Energy Data Centre providedassistance throughout the preparation of the report. The work was supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of the Governmentof Japan. A consultation workshop was held at the beginning of December 2023 with representativesfrom the governments of the G7, Colombia and Indonesia. Other participants includedrepresentatives from the International Labour Organization, the Powering Past Coal Alliance,and other non-governmental organisations and academia. These participants offeredvaluable insights and feedback for this analysis and we are grateful for their input. The work reflects the views of the International Energy Agency Secretariat but does notnecessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries or of any particular funder,supporter or collaborator. None of the IEA or any funder, supporter or collaborator thatcontributed to this work makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, inrespect of the work’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not beresponsible for any use of, or reliance on, the work. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundariesand to the name of any territory, city or area. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to: Acknowledgements................................................................................................................. 3Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 7Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 11 The context131 1.1Trends in coal use, production and emissions ............................................... 141.1.1Historical trends ............................................