Managing the Seasonal Variability of Electricity Demand and Supply

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31member countries,13association countries andbeyond. SpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEA member countries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic The European Commissionalso participates in the workof the IEA This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area. IEA association countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Abstract Electrification of end-uses and the growth of solar and wind ischanging how electricity systems operate on all time scales. Thisreport analyses how seasonal variations in both demand and supplyaffectelectricity system operations to 2050–in Europe,India,Indonesia and Korea – and what sources will be used to managethem.Seasonal variations are put in context with the annualelectricity mix and short-term (hourly) variability. Each of the analysedregions has a uniqueelectricity mix today, available resources,geographies, and patterns of electricity demand. Each has charted adifferent course for their clean energy transitions and is located indifferent climatic zones. This study also recognises that weatherconditions are uncertain and vary from year-to-year, exploring theirimpact on system operations and power system costs. The studyfinds that, in each system, both short-term and seasonal flexibilityneeds rise considerably to 2050. Flexibility, currently provided bythermal power plants and hydro, will increasingly come from newsources – demand response and batteries on shorter timescales andhydrogen across weeks to seasons – with low emissions thermalpower plants and hydro remaining important providers of seasonalbalancing.As the systems become more capital-intensive,consumers are increasingly insulated from the impact of weathervariations on power plant operations and the volatility of fossil fuelprices. This work expands on the reportManaging Seasonal and InterannualVariability, published in April 2023 which assesses the impact ofweather-related variability on system operations across seasons andbetween years in different climatic zones. Table of contents Executive summary ......................................................................................... 5Introduction....................................................................................................11Model set-up and methodology....................................................................13Key findings ...................................................................................................19Regional insights...........................................................................................24Europe..........................................................................................................25India..............................................................................................................42Indonesia......................................................................................................58Spotlight: Korea............................................................................................71Implications for power plant operations and costs ...................................79Annex ..............................................................................................................88 Executive summary meet their 2030 targets and longer-term net zero or carbon neutralitypledges is the basis of this analysis, including the European Union’starget to be climate-neutral by 2050, India’s ambition to achieve netzero emissions by 2070 and Indonesia’s commitment to reach netzero emissions by 2060 or before. The changing nature of electricity demandand supply calls for more flexibility within aday, but also across seasons The nature of electricity demand and supply is changing rapidly withclean energy transitions. Wind and solar PV represented 12% ofglobal electricity supply in 2023, but rise to 40% by 2030 on thepathto net zero emissions by 2050. Combined with new sources ofdemandfor electricity,from electric vehicles to residential heatpumps, power systems will look and operate differently than theyhave to date and electricity security will become ever more important. The analysis is based on a joint electricity and hydrogen dispatchm