Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach

2023 Update INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gasand coal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy eficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, afordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31 member countries,13associationcountries andbeyond. IEAassociationcountries: IEA membercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Please note that thispublication is subject tospecific restrictions that limitits use and distribution. Theterms and conditions areavailable online atwww.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereigntyover any territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org The publication of the first Net Zero Roadmap by the International Energy Agency (IEA) inMay 2021 was a landmark moment for the energy and climate world, setting out what wouldneed to happen in the global energy sector in the years and decades ahead to limit globalwarming to 1.5 °C. The interest in the report was huge. The world finally had an authoritativebenchmark for what a clear pathway to net zero energy sector CO2emissions by 2050 wouldlook like – something against which the proliferation of net zero pledges could be compared. The significance of the report was reflected by the massive number of readers it attractedonline. It quickly became our most viewed and downloaded publication ever, a sign of thestrong demand for clear and unbiased analysis, translating the temperature goals of the ParisAgreement into practical milestones for the global energy sector. Our Roadmap became areference point for governments, companies, investors and civil society, helping informdiscussions and decision-making on pursuing secure, inclusive and affordable transitions toclean energy. Much has happened since its launch two and half years ago: first, the strong and carbon-intensive economic recovery from the Covid crisis; then, the global energy crisis triggered byRussia’s invasion of Ukraine. The negative consequences of these major events include therise of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to a new record in 2022 and increasedinvestment in new fossil fuel projects. However, we have also seen some extremely positive developments, most notably the rapidprogress of key clean energy technologies, such as solar PV and electric vehicles, backed bysignificant policy efforts to advance them further. Recognising the importance of theseindustries of the future for energy security and economic competitiveness, countries aroundthe world are seeking to boost their clean technology manufacturing capacities, driving aresurgence in industrial policy. Innovation is also accelerating, strengthening the pipeline oftechnologies that will be needed to complete the world’s journey to net zero. At the same time, the case for climate action is stronger than ever. July 2023 was the hottestmonth on record – and 2023 as a whole appears likely to become the hottest year. Severewildfires, droughts, floods and storms further underlined that the climate crisis is with us andthat the costs are mounting. Politically, this year is an important test for the Paris Agreement,with the first Global Stocktake at the COP28 Climate Conference providing a comprehensiveassessment of where things stand five years on. To succeed, it needs to set a course for allcountries to step up to meet the challenge. With this in mind, the IEA is therefore providing a 2023 update to our Net Zero Roadmap,drawing on the latest data and analysis to map out what the global energy sector would needto do, especially in the crucial period between now and 2030, to play its part in keeping the1.5 °C goal in reach. The findings are clear: while the global pathway to net zero by 2050 wemapped out previously has narrowed, it is still achievable. It is too soon to give up on 1.5 °C.And I would like to underscore that net zero by 2050 globally doesn’t mean net zero by 2050for every country. In our pathway, advanced economies reach net zero sooner to allowemerging and developing economies more time. Foreword Among the wealth of insights contained in this report, I would like to highlight one messagein particular: in an era of international tensions, governments need to separate climate fromgeopolitics. Meeting the shared goal of preventing globa