钢矿周报：产业边际改善，宏观延续悲观，底部震荡

期货研究报告 2024年9月8日 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：螺纹钢——震荡铁矿石——震荡 铁矿：铁水企稳回升，下行空间有限 到港回落：前期低发运量到港，本期进口矿到货量回落，整体中性无驱动。 铁水回升：钢厂盈利率回升，部分高炉复产，铁矿日均消耗量止跌回升，铁水产量低位回升，九月铁水预计企稳回升。 刘开友—黑色研究员从业资格证号：F03087895投资咨询证号：Z0019509联系电话：0571-28132535邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 港口累库：45港口进口矿库存延续小幅累库趋势。 策略建议：铁矿供给中性，而需求低位回升存潜在利多。短期跟随板块弱势调整，铁矿延续探底，但随着需求环比回升，预计下方空间有限，短期观望为宜。 张亦宁—黑色研究员从业资格证号：F3084599联系电话：0571-28132578邮箱：zhangyining1@cindasc.com 螺纹：产业边际改善，但宏观悲观，继续探底 供给回升：随成本让利，钢厂盈利率回升，高炉和电炉均复产，螺纹产线复产，周产量低位回升。 表需持稳：在连续回暖后，本周表需回升幅度放缓，基本持稳。 库存下降：螺纹供需存缺口，钢厂和社会库存继续下降。 策略建议：基本面，螺纹供需边际改善，全口径库存下降且水平偏低。而宏观层面，市场押注九月降息50bp，商品交投情绪偏弱。综合看，短期黑色板块仍处于探底阶段，螺纹延续下行趋势。 风险提示：政策利好超预期（上行风险） 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、铁矿石：...........................................................................................................31、价格..........................................................................................................32、供给..........................................................................................................33、需求..........................................................................................................44、库存..........................................................................................................55、比价..........................................................................................................6二、螺纹钢：...........................................................................................................71、价格..........................................................................................................72、供给..........................................................................................................73、需求..........................................................................................................84、库存..........................................................................................................95、比价........................................................................................................10 图目录 图1：铁矿石现货价格..................................................................................................................................3图2：铁矿石期货主力价格...........................................................................................................................3图3：全球铁矿石发运量...............................................................................................................................3图4：澳大利亚19港铁矿石发运量...............................................................................................................3图5：巴西19港铁矿石发运量......................................................................................................................3图6：非主流矿铁矿石发运量........................................................................................................................3图7：我国45港铁矿石到货量......................................................................................................................4图8：我国45港铁矿船舶到港量..................................................................................................................4图9：我国45港铁矿石疏港量......................................................................................................................4图10：247家钢企日均铁水产量...................................................................................................................4图11：247家钢企进口矿日均消耗量............................................................................................................4图12：247家钢企高炉产能利用率...............................................................................................................4图13：中国主要港口铁矿石日成交量...........................................................................................................5图14：247家钢企进口铁矿库存...................................................................................................................5图15：247家钢企进口铁矿库存消费比........................................................................................................5图16：我国45港进口铁矿库存....................................................................................................................5图17：我国45港巴西铁矿库存....................................................................................................................5图18：我国45港澳大利亚铁矿库存.............................................................................................................6图19：铁矿主力基差....................................................................................................................................6图20：铁矿主力-次主力月差........................................................................................................................6图21：螺矿比...............................................................................................................................................6图22：PB粉即期合约现货落地利润.............................................................................................................6图23：螺纹钢现货价格..............