月度策略报告：成本坍塌，焉有完卵

2024年09月05日 成本坍塌，焉有完卵 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com ➢2024年8月行情回顾：国际原油呈W型走势，整体震荡走低。PX刷新低价，主因是供应宽松和成本支撑无力。PTA加速下行，基本面没有支持。乙二醇价格相对坚挺，是聚酯商品中亮眼的存在。 ➢后市展望：PX方面，成本支撑不足叠加供应宽松，预计价格运行区间为7200-7600元/吨。在成本和基本面的双重打压下，PX已经跌至7000区间。Q4海内外装置有集中检修计划，供应压力将有所缓解。PTA对PX的刚需预计保持稳定，基本面在9月将边际改善。但宏观气氛低迷，油价上行空间有限。目前，PX仍在遵循成本定价逻辑，原油波动带来的影响远甚于基本面。 相关报告 PX&PTA20240812《成本支撑坍塌，旺季备货未出现》20240819《供需双弱，难改颓势》20240826《成本无支撑，需求无改善》MEG20240812《聚酯提货偏弱，下半月进口到港集中》20240819《国内产量有所收缩，关注聚酯旺季备货何时开启》20240827《大装置降负带来提振，供应预期有所转向》 PTA方面，进入传统旺季需求有所改善，预计价格运行区间为5000-5500元/吨。从成本来看，油价继续在地缘、利比亚原油供应和美联储政策间反复，没有明确的提振消息；PX的基本面仍然弱势，受原油的钳制。从基本面来看，仅有两套装置计划检修，若加工费明显回落，计划外的检修将增多。进入聚酯季节性旺季，对PTA需求或将回升，因此9-10月份PTA累库存速度或将放缓。MEG方面，国内开工提升叠加商品情绪不佳，预计价格运行区间为4400-4700元/吨。9-10月多套前期检修的装置有重启计划，乙二醇供应端有明显增量。不过聚酯行业从9月起进入传统旺季，开工将逐步回升，带动需求好转。在价格涨至4700以上，经济效益将驱使工厂积极提升负荷，虽然转换为实际产品需要时间，但需关注预期管理。9月上旬进口到港偏少，预计中旬起将恢复，主港库存情况会有反复。 风险提示：地缘冲突对原油的冲击 目录 （一）行情回顾：刷新上市以来的最低价...........................................................................................................................5（二）开工保持近五年高位...................................................................................................................................................6（三）PXN明显压缩，PX-MX价差保持稳定.....................................................................................................................8（四）进口保持相对低位，社库进入累库通道....................................................................................................................9 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................10 （一）行情回顾：加速下行，基本面没有支持..................................................................................................................10（二）加工费在下跌中保持稳定.........................................................................................................................................11（三）月内产量再创新高.....................................................................................................................................................13（四）出口继续维持高位.....................................................................................................................................................13 （一）行情回顾：聚酯商品中亮眼的存在.........................................................................................................................14（二）装置降负推动价格上行.............................................................................................................................................14（三）港口库存有所回升，港口发货偏弱.........................................................................................................................16（四）进口到港集中在中旬，海外装置变动较少..............................................................................................................17 （一）行情回顾：成本需求双弱，价格偏弱运行..............................................................................................................18（二）短纤深化减产，产销放量仅有一次.........................................................................................................................19（三）库存向终端转移.........................................................................................................................................................21（四）聚酯出口较6月有所下滑.........................................................................................................................................22 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................24 （一）淡季表现异常冷清，服饰类零售环比大幅下滑......................................................................................................24（二）纺织服装出口额超预期下滑.....................................................................................................................................25（三）发达国家纺服进口同比均有下滑.............................................................................................................................26 六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................27 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································6图6：PX基差