Quel rebond local apr è s des perpertes d 'emplois massives?

The report "LA NOTE D’ANALYSE" examines the impact of significant job losses at the local level after the 2008-2009 financial crisis in France. It identifies that areas experiencing large-scale job losses during the crisis showed a divergence from similar areas that were less affected or not affected at all.

In terms of employment in 2009, the difference between these areas was an average of 2.7% lower compared to the control group. By 2019, this difference increased to 4.3%. The estimated multiplier effect is approximately 1.6, meaning each job loss during the financial crisis results in roughly 1.6 fewer jobs in 2019.

Moreover, the gap in employment between the most affected areas and those less affected has grown over time, particularly due to a decline in non-industrial employment. This disparity is more pronounced in areas already experiencing economic decline before the crisis.

Analyzing separately the dynamic versus declining areas prior to the crisis reveals that the negative employment shock has a stronger impact on dynamic areas than on those in decline.

Despite the overall improvement in employment numbers across France by 2020, not all local areas have recovered fully. About half of the areas heavily affected by the crisis still had significantly lower employment levels in 2019 compared to what would have been expected without the job losses. For about half of these areas, employment decreased by over 8.8%, and for one quarter, it exceeded 10.2%.

The study underscores the long-lasting effects of significant job losses, with impacts more pronounced in areas that were already in economic decline. The report also highlights the importance of understanding regional disparities in employment recovery and the need for tailored policies to support affected regions.