阔针价差继续走弱，国内造纸业仍承压

银河期货纸浆周报 阔针价差继续走弱，国内造纸业仍承压 商品宏观：未来的种子深埋于过去 银星外盘报价下调，国内市场现货价格小幅回升，进口倒挂现象得到改善。国内五大主港库存周环比累库+0.4万吨，报收178.3万吨，同比去库-3.3%（连续4周环、同比累库）。阔叶浆继续6周边际走弱，对针叶浆价差扩大至-1000元/吨。 研究员 潘盛杰 6月，日本纸浆产业平衡转宽松：当地纸浆工业生产指数环比减产，报收88.6点；生产者产成品（纸浆）库存指数环比去库，报收96.1点，同比累库+4.0%，近2个月增幅收窄，边际去库。 6月，泰国造纸产业经营转好：当地纸及纸制品劳动成本指数环比下降，报收97.2点，同比下降-1.2%；纸浆及成品纸产能利用率环比减产，报收72.1%，较去年同期增产+3.4个百分点，连续11个月边际增产。 联系方式 6月，国内造纸业经营偏弱：国内造纸业用电量环比减少，报收8.59亿千瓦时，同比增产+5.4%，连续2个月涨幅收窄，边际减产；规模以上造纸企业产成品存货环比去库，报收749.1亿元，同比累库+1.9%，连续7个月边际累库。 手机号16621622706 基本面企稳。 邮箱panshengjie_qh@chinastock.com.cn 目录 目录....................................................................................................................................................2第一部分说明...............................................................................................................................5第二部分总览...............................................................................................................................6一、综合指数..........................................................................................................................8第三部分宏观供应.....................................................................................................................9一、海外数据..........................................................................................................................91.美国新屋开工..................................................................................................................9第四部分微观供应|木材端...................................................................................................10一、海外数据........................................................................................................................101.美国CME木材期货....................................................................................................102.俄罗斯木材业................................................................................................................11二、国内数据........................................................................................................................131.进口量-锯材...................................................................................................................13第五部分贸易流通|纸浆端...................................................................................................14一、绝对价格........................................................................................................................141.价格-针叶浆...................................................................................................................142.期现价格.........................................................................................................................15二、相对价差........................................................................................................................151.交割利润：人民币针叶浆基差季节性.................................................................152.交割利润：美元针叶浆（银星）基差季节性...................................................193.期货市场.........................................................................................................................234.跨品种价差：非标基差&加工利润.....................................................................25三、海外数据........................................................................................................................291.进口金额-美国纸浆及废纸.......................................................................................292.加拿大交通运输...........................................................................................................303.欧洲纸浆库存&消费...................................................................................................304.日本纸浆.........................................................................................................................325.韩国贸易顺差-回收纸.................................................................................................34四、国内数据........................................................................................................................341.进口-纸浆 ........................................................................................................................34 2.纸浆产量.........................................................................................................................363.纸浆库存.........................................................................................................................374.沿海货物吞吐总量.......................................................................................................385.进出口总额....................................................................................................................396.CCFI出口集装箱运价-欧洲航线............................................................................39 第六部分微观消费|造纸端...................................................................................................41一、海外数据........................................................................................................................4