供应较为充足，油脂弱势震荡

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2409合约7882元/吨，环比上涨2元，涨幅0.03%；昨日收盘豆油2409合约7688元/吨，环比下跌106元，跌幅1.36%；昨日收盘菜油2409合约8665元/吨，环比下跌117元，跌幅1.33%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价7980元/吨，环比上涨40元，涨幅0.50%，现货基差P09+98，环比上涨38元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7810元/吨，环比下跌80元/吨，跌幅1.01%，现货基差Y09+122，环比上涨26元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8710元/吨，环比下跌110元，跌幅1.25%，现货基差OI09+45，环比上涨7元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据国家粮油信息中心，截至7月26日一周，国内大豆压榨量197万吨，周环比回升7万吨，月环比下降21吨，近期进口大豆集中到港，油厂开机率仍将处于较高水平，预计本周油厂大豆压榨量约为215万吨。阿根廷豆油(8月船期) C&F价格991美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调1美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(10月船期)C&F价格968美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调11美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（8月船期）C&F价格1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；进口菜油10月船期)C&F价格1050元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格持续震荡，国内大豆库存充足，叠加油厂开机水平较高，供应充足，三大油脂弱势震荡。豆油方面，CBOT大豆净空单持仓依然庞大，未来期货市场将面临空头平仓压力，有一定概率引发价格反弹。现货端，国内油厂及贸易商报价偏高，市场成交较少，部分油厂由于豆粕胀库有停机现象，但仍难以改变供应强于需求现状，预计近期豆油基差偏弱，价格依旧偏弱运行。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 油脂观点..............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................3图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................3图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................3图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷...................................................................................................................................3图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................3图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................3图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................4图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................4图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................4图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................4图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................................4图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨..............................................................................................................................................4图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................................5图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................................5图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨..............................................................................................................................................5图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................5图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨 .........................................................................................................................................5图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................................5图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨 .........................................................................................................................................6图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................6图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................6图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨 .........................................................................................................................................6图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨 .........................................................................................................................................6图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................6图25