2024年7月月度黄金指南针

July2024 Ronald-Peter StöferleMark J. Valek TableofContents: 1. Gold2.Silver3. Miner4.Macro5. Long Term Charts6.Proprietary Models 1. Gold “I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the onlycurrency, along with silver, that does not require acounterparty signature.” Alan Greenspan Gold (Nominal), and Gold (US CPI Adjusted – May 2024), in USD,01/1970–05/2024 Monthly Gold ETF Flows by Region (lhs), in Tonnes, and Gold (rhs), inUSD, 01/2004–05/2024 Monthly Gold ETF Flows by Region (lhs), in Tonnes, and Gold (rhs), inUSD, 01/2004–05/2024 2. Silver “Trading silver is a tough way to make an easy living.” Rich Ross Annualized Performance of Silver, in USD, if Bought on the Last Day of theMonth and Held until 06/30/2024 (Holding Period ≥ 1 Year) Silver, in USD, and Incrementum World Silver Price (IWSP),07/2014–06/2024 Silver (Nominal), and Silver (US CPI Adjusted – May 2024), in USD,01/1970–05/2024 3. Miner “You make most of your money in a bear market, you justdon’t realize it at the time.” ShelbyCullomDavis Monthly Performance of Bullion and Miners, 07/2022–06/2024 4. Macro(Inflation, Markets, Positioning, etc.) “We now understand better how little we understandabout inflation.” Jerome Powell Inflation Heat Map (Developed Markets), yoy, 06/2022–05/2024 Inflation Heat Map (Emerging Markets), yoy, 06/2022–05/2024 CFTC Futures and Options Net Long Positioning, Non-Commercial Traders,06/28/2024 Fed Interest Rate Policy Implied by Federal Funds Futures (1 = 25 bps),06/2024–12/2026 5. Long Term Charts “If you decide you want to buy gold, you have the weight ofhistory behind you.” Herb Stein Market Capitalization of Gold, and US Stock Market (Wilshire 5000), inUSD trn, 01/2013–06/2024 Market Capitalization of Bitcoin, and Gold, in USD trn, 01/2013–06/2024 Aggregated Central Bank Balance Sheets (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC),in USD trn (lhs), and yoy (rhs), 01/2000–05/2024 M2 (US, EU, JP, CN, GB, CH), in USD trn (lhs), and yoy (rhs),01/2000–05/2024 Gold (lhs), in USD, and Real Federal Funds (Federal Funds - CPI)(rhs, inverted), 01/1970–06/2024 6. Proprietary Models “I believe it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one's portfolio.” RayDalio Incrementum Inflation Signal (lhs), and Inflation-sensitive Assets (rhs),100 = 07/2019, 07/2019–06/2024 Incrementum Recession Phase Model Addendum Because we care… About ourClients.AboutSociety.About theFuture. Agnico Eagle Agnico Eagle is a senior Canadian gold mining company, and third-largest gold producer in the world, with operating mines inCanada, Australia, Finland and Mexico, and a pipeline of high-quality exploration and development projects in these countries and theUnited States. Asante Gold Asante Gold has developed its +400,000 oz per year production profile through organic growth and focused acquisitions. We believein responsible development and strive to be Ghana’s foremost gold producer and employer of choice. Caledonia Mining Caledonia Mining is a dividend-paying gold producer and explorer, with a strong growth profile; since November 2021 it has acquiredMaligreen,Motapaand Bilboes. Its vision is to become a Zimbabwe focused multi-asset gold producer. DMCC DMCC has played a key role in making Dubai a top gold market, known as 'the city of gold', with 25% of global trade, mostly throughits free zone. DMCC's infrastructure includes a precious metals vault, jewelry facilities, and gold coins. It also boosts gold tradethrough platforms like DGCX and DMCCTradeflow. ELEMENTUM–More for sure! For almost two decades,Elementumhas been your competent partner for strategic solutions in physical gold and silver for privateindividuals, families, employers and employees. EMX Royalty EMX has a 20+ year track record of smart deals. Experiencing a record year in 2023 with USD 37mn in cashflow, EMX looks forwardto a bright future with diversification into gold, copper, battery metals, strong partners like Franco Nevada and multi-decade payingroyalties. Endeavour Mining As a leading global gold producer and largest in West Africa, Endeavour is committed to the principles of responsible mininganddelivering sustainable value to all stakeholders. Endeavour is listed on the LSE and TSE under the symbol EDV. Endeavour Silver Endeavour Silver operates 2 high-grade underground silver mines in Mexico. AdvancingTerroneraProject & exploring to becomepremier silver producer. Shares offer industry-leading beta to silver price, with over 60% revenue from silver. First Majestic Silver First Majestic is a silver and gold producer that owns and operates three producing mines in Mexico, one gold project in USA,andseveral development and exploration assets. We are also launching our own minting facility, First Mint, in USA. flexgold–a brand of SOLIT flexgold is the smart way to invest in physical precious metals, as flexible and simple as never before. With flexgold, SOLITsets thegold standard for trust, s