聚酯半年度策略报告：背靠大树是否好乘凉
2024年06月26日 背靠大树是否好乘凉 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com ➢2024年上半年行情回顾：国际原油主要围绕巴以冲突的局势变换潮起潮落，预期的夏季出行高峰期也迟迟未到。PX背靠原油的成本大树，一荣俱荣一损俱损。PTA事件驱动性行情来去匆匆，成本定价是主逻辑。MEG忽如一夜春风来，价格重心向上抬。 ➢后市展望：PX方面，预计先涨后跌，价格区间为8400-8850元/吨，夏季末是价格高点。欧美夏季出行高峰期仍在支撑着市场预期，OPEC+延续减产到Q3，Q3的成本支撑较为稳定。综合来看，成本定价是主线逻辑，上行幅度受制于下游需求的边际变化，若纺服需求不冷不热，则区间运行将是常态。PTA方面，预计价格大稳小动，价格区间为5700-6000元/吨，需求旺季是价格高点。Q3原油的关注点由宏观转向基本面，Q4又将转回美联储降息，成本对PTA是托底作用。“金九银十”的需求旺季仍可期待，下半年计划投产聚酯新产能456万吨，其中320万吨是聚酯瓶片，涤纶长丝和涤纶短纤共计116万吨，剩余是聚酯薄膜20万吨。聚酯新产能的持续投产，将有效保证PTA新增消费量。MEG方面，预计偏强运行，价格区间为4400-4800元/吨。下半年计划新投产能有限，供需结构预期将会出现进一步改善。价格重心在上半年已完成第一步抬升，理论上利润明显修复时会带来供应的回升，但价格反弹并不一定带来产量的绝对回归。综合来看，供应端的容忍度逐步提高，需求端有传统旺季加持，基本面整体向好，港口库存仍是下半年价格的风向标，地缘问题仍需关注。 相关报告 2024M12024年度策略报告《产业内卷不断，需求修复道阻且长》2024M2行业专题报告《聚酯行业的淡旺季及春节运行情况》2024M32024季度策略报告《需求雾里看花，拐点能否如期而至》2024M42024月度策略报告《成本需求双弱，检修能否带来新变化》2024M52024月度策略报告《需求何时迎来曙光》 风险提示：地缘爆发重大冲突，美国夏季出现旺季表现不及预期，纺织旺季表现疲弱 目录 （一）行情回顾：“冬热夏冷”，价格创下上市新低............................................................................................................5（二）开工负荷：Q1高歌猛进，Q2变动频发....................................................................................................................6（三）芳烃调油：中场暂停OR中途离场............................................................................................................................8（四）库存：Q2结束去年Q4以来的累库.........................................................................................................................10 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）行情回顾：热点来去匆匆，成本定价是主逻辑......................................................................................................11（二）开工：超长待机装置开启检修，加工费修复至区间上沿......................................................................................12（三）库存：拐点于Q1末出现..........................................................................................................................................14（四）出口：一带一路沿线国家弥补印度市场的缺失......................................................................................................14 三、MEG.......................................................................................................................................................................15 （一）行情回顾：忽如一夜春风来，价格重心向上抬......................................................................................................15（二）开工：Q1煤制装置集中春检，Q2油制装置复工不畅..........................................................................................16（三）库存：不累库的春节，成为价格上行的底气..........................................................................................................17（四）进口：地缘冲突影响运费和到港期限......................................................................................................................19 （一）行情回顾：断点式的行情，淡旺季区别降低..........................................................................................................19（一）开工：环保问题导致减产，产销点状放量..............................................................................................................20（三）Q1权益库存低于实际库存，Q2主动减产去库存..................................................................................................23（四）出口：瓶片延续亮眼，长丝仍有拖累......................................................................................................................24 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................25 （一）坯布价格上行困难，户外服饰接棒新中式..............................................................................................................25（二）1-5月我国纺服累计出口保持正增长.......................................................................................................................27（三）对美国、东盟和欧盟出口改善，对日本出口持续走弱..........................................................................................28 六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................29 图表目录 第3页请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）·····························································
