锌月报：市场情绪折返跑 锌价高位调整

市场情绪折返跑 锌价高位调整 核心观点及策略 要点要点要点宏观面看，美国制造业回摆就业降温引发经济衰退担忧，通胀韧性强约束美联储降息决策，维持谨慎表态。欧央行如预期降息但对未来降息路径不做承诺，利空兑现后美元涨势放缓。国内经济增速放缓但政策加码，逐步进入政策效果观察期。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 供应端看，海外矿山扰动及新增项目后延，拖累锌矿增量下调，国内矿山延续季节性恢复，进口矿补充不足下，加工费已降至极低水平，三季度后原料供应存边际改善预期。当下低加工费被动推升锌价估值弥补炼厂利润，但原料库存低于同期，制约炼厂提产空间。锌锭进口窗口暂未开启，进口冲击压力有限。 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端看，国内专项债发行加快及超长期特别国债落地利好基建，以旧换新政策延续支撑汽车及家电板块，高基数拖累风光增速同比转负，地产优化政策加码下供需或迎边际改善，消费后置预期下不排除淡季不淡。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体看，内外经济复苏节奏放缓，多头资金调仓带动锌价调整，但矿侧矛盾未解，供给约束提供支撑。预计6月沪锌期价宽幅震荡，主要运行区间在23500-25000元/吨。 王工建021-68555105wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 策略建议：等待调整企稳逢低做多 风险因素：宏观风险，海外交仓，需求不及预期 目录 2.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5 3.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................73.1.1海外新增增量再度下调，国内矿山延续季节性恢复.......................................................73.1.2内外加工费环比回落，锌矿进口窗口开启.....................................................................83.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................103.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应端修复.............................................................................................103.2.2国内精炼锌供应预期环比回落，精炼锌进口窗口关闭..................................................113.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................123.3.1海外需求偏弱.....................................................................................................................123.3.2国内初端消费平稳，初端产品出口喜忧参半.................................................................133.3.3政策加码，终端需求预期较好.........................................................................................143.4全球显现库存维持高位..................................................17 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................6图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................6图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................6图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................6图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内GDP数据..............................................................................................................7图表10全球锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................8图表11国内锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................8图表12 2024年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）..................................................................8图表13内外矿加工费维持弱势..............................................................................................9图表14锌矿进口窗口开启......................................................................................................9图表15锌矿进口情况..............................................................................................................9图表16冶炼厂原料库存..........................................................................................................9图表17 2021年四季度至今欧洲冶炼厂减复产情况（万吨）............................................10图表18全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................10图表19国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................11图表20冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................11图表21精炼锌净进口情况....................................................................................................11图表22精炼锌进口亏损收窄................................................................................................11图表23全球精炼锌月度需求情况........................................................................................12图表24美国新建住房销量................................................