2024年全球风险报告（英）

January2024TheGlobalRisksReport2024 Termsofuseanddisclaimer ThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightarea orinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders. WorldEconomicForum91-93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland Tel.:+41(0)228691212 Fax:+41(0)227862744 E-mail:contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org Copyright©2024 bytheWorldEconomicForum Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,orotherwisewithoutthepriorpermissionoftheWorldEconomicForum. ISBN:978-2-940631-64-3 Thereportandaninteractivedataplatformareavailableathttps://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/. Contents Preface OverviewofmethodologyKeyfindings Chapter1:GlobalRisks2024:Ataturningpoint 1.1Theworldin2024 1.2Thepathto2026 1.3Falseinformation 1.4Riseinconflict 1.5Economicuncertainty 1.6LookingaheadEndnotes Chapter2:GlobalRisks2034:Overthelimit 2.1Theworldin2034 2.2Structuralforces 2.3A3°Cworld 2.4AIincharge 2.5Theendofdevelopment? 2.6Crimewave 2.7PreparingforthedecadeaheadEndnotes Chapter3:Respondingtoglobalrisks 3.1Localizedstrategies 3.2Breakthroughendeavors 3.3Collectiveactions 3.4Cross-bordercoordination 3.5ConclusionEndnotes AppendixA:DefinitionsandGlobalRisksList AppendixB:GlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey2023-2024AppendixC:ExecutiveOpinionSurvey:NationalRiskPerceptionsAppendixD:Riskgovernance PartnerInstitutesAcknowledgements 4 5 6 12 12 14 18 22 27 32 33 37 37 40 42 50 57 68 76 77 85 86 87 89 90 92 94 95 99 102 112 115 121 Preface SaadiaZahidi ManagingDirector Lastyear’sGlobalRisksReportwarnedofaworldthatwouldnoteasilyreboundfromcontinuedshocks.As2024begins,the19theditionof thereportissetagainstabackdropofrapidlyacceleratingtechnologicalchangeandeconomicuncertainty,astheworldisplaguedbyaduoofdangerouscrises:climateandconflict. Underlyinggeopoliticaltensionscombinedwiththeeruptionofactivehostilitiesinmultipleregionsiscontributingtoanunstableglobalordercharacterizedbypolarizingnarratives,erodingtrustandinsecurity.Atthesametime,countriesaregrapplingwiththeimpactsofrecord-breakingextremeweather,asclimate-changeadaptationeffortsandresources fallshortofthetype,scaleandintensityofclimate-relatedeventsalreadytakingplace.Cost-of-livingpressurescontinuetobite,amidstpersistentlyelevatedinflationandinterestratesandcontinuedeconomicuncertaintyinmuchoftheworld. Despondentheadlinesareborderless,sharedregularlyandwidely,andasenseoffrustrationatthestatusquoisincreasinglypalpable.Together,thisleavesampleroomforacceleratingrisks–likemisinformationanddisinformation–topropagateinsocietiesthathavealreadybeenpoliticallyandeconomicallyweakenedinrecentyears. Justasnaturalecosystemscanbepushedtothelimitandbecomesomethingfundamentallynew;suchsystemicshiftsarealsotakingplaceacrossotherspheres:geostrategic,demographicandtechnological.Thisyear,weexploretheriseofglobalrisksagainstthebackdropofthese“structuralforces”aswellasthetectonicclashesbetweenthem.Thenextsetofglobalconditionsmaynotnecessarilybebetterorworsethanthelast,butthetransitionwillnotbeaneasyone. Thereportexplorestheglobalrisklandscapeinthisphaseoftransitionandgovernancesystemsbeingstretchedbeyondtheirlimit.Itanalysesthemostsevereperceivedriskstoeconomiesandsocietiesovertwoand10years,inthecontextoftheseinfluentialforces.Couldwecatapulttoa3°Cworldastheimpactsofclimatechangeintrinsicallyrewritetheplanet?Havewereachedthepeakofhumandevelopmentforlargepartsoftheglobalpopulation,givendeterioratingdebtandgeo-economicconditions?Couldwefaceanexplosionofcriminalityandcorruptionthatfeedsonmorefragilestatesandmorevulnerablepopulations?Willan“armsrace”in experimentaltechnologiespresentexistentialthreatstohumanity? Thesetransnationalriskswillbecomehardertohandleasglobalcooperationerodes.Inthisyear’sGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey,two-thirdsofrespondentspredictthatamultipolarorderwilldominateinthenext10years,asmiddleandgreatpowerssetandenforce–butalsocontest -currentrulesandnorms.Thereportconsiderstheimplicationsofthisfragmentedworld,where preparednessforglobalrisksisevermorecriticalbutishinderedbylackofconsensusandcooperation. Italsopresentsaconceptualframeworkforaddressingglobalrisks,identifyingthescopefor“minimumviableeffort”foraction,dependingonthenatureoftherisk. Theinsightsinthisreportareunderpinnedbynearlytwodecadesoforiginaldataonglobalriskperception.ThereporthighlightsthefindingsfromourannualGlobalRisksPerceptionSurvey,whichbringstogetherthecollectiveintelligenceofnearly1,500globalleadersacrossacademia,business,government,theinternationalcommunityandcivilsociety.Italsoleveragesinsightsfromover200thematicexperts,includingtheriskspecialiststhat formtheGlobalRisksReportAdvisoryBoard,GlobalFutureCouncilonComplexRisks,andtheChiefRiskOff