2024年欧洲食品杂货状况：希望的迹象（英）2024

Signs of HopeThe State of Grocery Retail2024– Europe – © Getty Images © Getty ImagesContentsForeword and introduction to the team 3State of Grocery Europe 2024: Signs of Hope 6Key trends looking forward 13Overall implications for grocers 23Food and grocery market KPIs 25Interviews with four inspirational CEOs 28Acknowledgments, contributors, and contacts 41 For the European grocery sector, 2023 was all about inflation—again. European food price inflation averaged 12.8 percent in 2023, reaching its highest level since the end of the Second World War. While unfavorable market conditions put a strain on consumer wallets and margins are pressured by rising costs, there are signs of hope: inflation has stabilized, real wages are recovering, and fewer consumers indicate an intent to trade down, with some groups even inclined to trade up.This report examines the most prevalent trends that will influence the grocery industry in 2024 and beyond. How can grocers mitigate further cost increases and improve their margins? Will uptrading return and propel grocery sales again? What does the future hold for food to go? Will sustainability targets be reached on time? What needs to happen for players to get ahead in the online grocery market? How can grocers develop retail media businesses that support profitability reliably? Where should grocers invest in AI and advanced analytics to achieve the highest impact? Finally, in a world of tight labor markets, how can grocery retailers attract and retain the right talent for future growth?The State of Grocery Europe is an annual publication. This year’s report, Signs of Hope—The State of Grocery Retail 2024: Europe, is a continuation of a partnership between McKinsey and EuroCommerce, and it is designed to provide executives with a comprehensive view of the market and future trends. In preparing the report, we surveyed more than 12,000 consumers across 11 European countries and more than 30 grocery executives from more than 15 countries across Europe. In addition, we interviewed four grocery CEOs. We combined EuroCommerce’s policy and sector knowledge with McKinsey’s global expertise and analytical rigor.We hope this report will offer new insights and perspectives to help grocers navigate ongoing uncertainties and take advantage of future growth opportunities. Christel Delberghe Director general EuroCommerceDaniel Läubli Head Food Retail McKinsey & CompanyForeword3Signs of Hope—The State of Grocery Retail 2024: Europe EditorsChristel DelbergheChristel is director general of EuroCommerce, the European organization that represents five million retailers and wholesalers.Anton DelbarreAnton is EuroCommerce’s chief economist and leads research on the role of retail in the European economy.Dirk VissersDirk is responsible for the development of global insights at Europanel.Franck LaizetFranck is a senior partner at McKinsey leading the Retail Practice in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).Daniel LäubliDaniel is a senior partner at McKinsey leading the Food Retail Practice globally.Alexandre KleisAlexandre is an associate partner at McKinsey and a lead editor of the report.Rickard VallöfRickard is a partner at McKinsey and a lead editor of the report; he leads the Food Retail Practice in Europe.4Signs of Hope—The State of Grocery Retail 2024: Europe © Getty Images5Signs of Hope—The State of Grocery Retail 2024: Europe State of Grocery Europe 2024Signs of HopeFor the European grocery industry, 2023 was a challenging year. Inflation led consumers to tighten their belts, leading to a drop in volume and significant downtrading. As a result, industry growth was significantly below food price inflation. Food price inflation in Europe was 12.8 percent in 2023,1 while grocery sales grew at a rate of only 8.6 percent.2 Discounters and private labels benefited from this market environment and were yet again the winners of the year.In 2024, we expect macroeconomic uncertainty to persist, but at the same time, our research indicates the first small signs of recovery. The pressure on margins, costs, and prices remains a key concern for grocery retail CEOs, but leaders are less pessimistic than they were in previous years. In addition, thanks to initial signs of economic recovery and wage increases in many countries, consumer confidence is returning. Still, our consumer research shows that recovery of consumer behavior is very polarized for 2024. While most consumer segments are still price sensitive and trading down, some segments show an increased appetite for uptrading and innovations. 1 Based on Eurostat data, January 2024.2 Based on Europanel data.by Christel Delberghe, Anton Delbarre, Dirk Vissers, Daniel Läubli, Franck Laizet, Rickard Vallöf, and Alexandre Kleis6Signs of Hope—The State of Grocery Retail 2024: Europe 2023: Again all about priceGrocery sales in Europe3 grew by 8.6 percent in 2023. This growth was a result of 12.8 percent food price inflation, a downtrading effect