科技带动类业务贡献将不断增加

EquityResearch CompanyReport:ChinaStateConstructionInternational(03311HK)GaryWong黄家玮 (852)25092616 公司报告：中国建筑国际(03311HK)中文版Chineseversiongary.wong@gtjas.com.hk25March2024 科技带动类业务贡献将不断增加 CompanyReport 我们重申“买入”评级，维持15.00港元的目标价。我们分别小幅下调中国建筑国际（“公司”）2024/2025年每股盈利预测3.4%/3.1%至2.028港元/2.266港 元，并首次给予2026年每股盈利预测为2.503港元。我们维持15.00港元的 目标价，相当于7.2倍/7.1倍/6.9倍的2024/2025/2026年EV/EBITDA。 2023年股东净利润同比增长15.2%至92亿港元，业绩符合预期。2023年总收入为1,137亿港元，同比增长11.5%，其中科技带动类减少27.3%港元至221 亿港元（因2023年不再有防疫项目），投资带动类同比增加33.1%至540亿港元，建筑类同比增长22.0%至361亿港元，运营类同比提升11.0%至16亿港元。新签合约额为1,879亿港元，同比增长16.9%，其中科技带动类同比增长44.4%至745亿港元，投资带动类同比提升21.1%至646亿港元，建筑类同比下降13.8%至465亿港元，运营类同比增长23.6%至24亿港元。2024年新签合约额目标为2,100亿港元。 Rating:Buy Maintained 评级：买入(维持) 6-18mTP目标价:HK$15.00 Revisedfrom原目标价:HK$15.00 Shareprice股价:HK$8.860 Stockperformance 股价表现 在中国港澳市场，“北部都会区”规划和澳门博彩公司增加非博彩投资等举措正在进行。在中国内地市场，“三大工程”（保障性住房、城中村改造、“平急两用”公共基建设施）为房屋建筑业带来了历史性机遇。此外，建筑业正向工业化和 EquityResearchReport 绿色建筑方向发展，实现劳动力和双碳目标，而模组化集成建筑产品则引领趋势。北京西城区桦皮厂胡同8号楼更新改建项目在90天内完成了快速改造，成为高效老旧社区改造的典范。与此同时，香港的“简约公屋”计划正通过增加3万个单位来满足迫切的住房需求。 催化剂：1）深圳绿色低碳智慧建筑基地项目正式开工建设；2）公司与其他建 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) %ofreturn 筑公司共同中标香港新界西堆填区扩建项目，合同总金额达611亿港元，是公司历史上单笔合同金额最大的项目。 ConstructionEngineeringSector 风险：1）政府基建支出或低于预期；2）海外项目风险。 Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24 HSIindexCHINASTATECONSTRUCTIONINT 股 票研 究 公 司报 告 证 券研究报 告 建 筑工程行 业 中 国建筑国 际 ChangeinSharePrice1M股价变动1个月 3M 3个月 1Y 1年 Abs.%(1.8) 3.2 (3.6) Rel.%toHSIndex相对恒指变动% 1.9 13.3 Avg.Shareprice(HK$)8.8 8.7 8.6 绝对变动% (0.7) 平均股价（港元） Source:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational. YearEnd年结 Turnover 收入 NetProfit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS 每股净利变动 PER 市盈率 BPS 每股净资产 PBR 市净率 DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE 净资产收益率 12/31 (HK$m) (HK$m) (HK$) (△%) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2022A 101,975 7,957 1.579 17.0 5.6 11.472 0.8 0.480 5.4 12.8 2023A 113,734 9,164 1.819 15.2 4.9 12.253 0.7 0.560 6.3 15.3 2024F 126,563 10,215 2.028 11.5 4.4 13.670 0.6 0.610 6.9 15.6 2025F 139,519 11,418 2.266 11.7 3.9 15.267 0.6 0.670 7.6 15.7 2026F 153,768 12,608 2.503 10.5 3.5 17.020 0.5 0.750 8.5 15.5 Sharesinissue(m)总股数(m) 3,075.8 Majorshareholder大股东 COHL64.8% Marketcap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m) 27,251.6 Freefloat(%)自由流通比率(%) 35.2 3monthaveragevol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000) 3,535.6 FY24Netgearing(%)FY24净负债/股东资金(%) 69.3 52Weekshigh/low(HK$)52周高/低(HK$) 10.820/7.250 FY24Est.NAV(HK$)FY24每股估值（港元） 19.2 中 外运 输 ChinaStateConstructionInternational(03311HK) Source:theCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational. SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3 25March2024 财务报表及比率 损益表 资产负债表 Yearend31Dec(HKDm)2022A2023A2024F2025F2026F TotalRevenue101,975113,734126,563139,519153,768 CostofSales(87,957)(97,395)(108,346)(119,677)(132,212) GrossProfit14,01916,33918,21819,84221,556 InvestmentandOtherIncome/Gains,Net1,577647757763763 SG&AExpenses(2,435)(2,623)(2,792)(2,939)(3,085) OperatingProfit13,16114,36316,18217,66719,234 FinanceCosts(2,991)(3,204)(3,779)(3,884)(4,113) ShareofProfitsofJVs/Associates6099451,0551,1781,317 ProfitBeforeTax10,77912,10413,45814,96116,437 IncomeTax(2,309)(2,391)(2,649)(2,896)(3,122) ProfitAfterTax8,4699,71310,81012,06513,316 Non-controllingInterest(513)(549)(595)(647)(708) Shareholders'Profit/Loss7,9579,16410,21511,41812,608 BasicEPS1.5791.8192.0282.2662.503 DPS0.4800.5600.6100.6700.750 Yearend31Dec(HKDm)2022A2023A2024F2025F2026F Property,PlantandEquipment5,4406,2656,5696,8537,126 InterestinJVs&Associates24,25423,03325,40627,87030,384 ConcessionOperatingRights3,3283,0662,8042,5432,281 Long-termReceivables53,28655,60158,38161,30064,365InterestsinInfrastructureProject Investments4,7423,6513,8344,0264,227 OtherNon-currentAssets9,6209,73510,07210,39010,743 TotalNon-currentAssets100,670101,351107,066112,981119,125 Inventories590523582642710 TradeandOtherReceivables65,83075,41492,313108,886126,006 ContractAssets18,77721,59426,43231,17836,080 AmountsDuefromJVs,Associates& RelatedCompanies8,8279,66110,37111,01411,677 Cash&CashEquivalents23,88128,46326,01622,64017,981 OtherCurrentAssets10,27512,26912,67713,26413,744 TotalCurrentAssets128,180147,923168,391187,624206,199 ChinaStateConstructionInternational中国建筑国际(03311HK) TotalAssets228,850249,275275,457300,606325,324 Short-termBorrowings13,72016,51517,67118,90819,853TradePayables,OtherPayablesand CompanyReport 现金流量表Accruals 69,737 74,885 86,631 95,963 105,015 ContractLiabilities Yearend31Dec(HKDm) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F OtherCurrentLiabilities 19,368 23,956 25,821 27,764 29,904 ProfitBeforeTax 10,779 12,104 13,458 14,961 16,437 TotalCurrentLiabilities 102,825 115,355 130,123 142,635 154,773 DepreciationandAmortisation 688 617 647 678 711 ChangeinWorkingCapital (10,232) (11,461) (11,979) (13,236) (14,245) Long-termBorrowings 45,457 51,310 54,902 58,745 61,683 OtherOperatingActivities (1,022) (758) (587) (838) (946) OtherNon-currentLiabilities 12,772 8,331 8,410 8,497 8,591 CashfromOperatingActivities 212 501 1,539 1,566 1,957 TotalNon-currentLiabilities 58,229 59,642 63,312 67,242 70,274 TotalLiabilities 161,054 174,997 193,435 209,877 225,046 CapitalExpenditure (363) (787)