Deutsche Bank ResearchGeopolitics: 2000 years of long-term chartsMarch 2024Jim ReidHead of Global Economics & Thematic Research(+44)-20-7547-2943jim.reid@db.comAdrian Cox+44-20-754-17775adrian.cox@bd.comHenry Allen+44-20-754-11149henry-f.allen@db.comIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Galina Pozdnyakova+44-20-754-74994galina.pozdnyakova@db.comCassidy Ainsworth-Grace+44-207-547-0142cassidy.ainsworth-grace@db.comDistributed on: 10/03/2024 21:03:06 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.comThe world’s tectonic plates of power change slowly but dramatically over time1 ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.comWorldeconomicpowershiftsovertime.Therelativegrowthanddeclineofcountries/empiresoftenleadstoglobaltensions.WhileChinahasbeengrowingrapidlyinrecentdecades,thatgrowthisjustrestoringitclosertoitsplaceformuchofeconomichistory,apositionitfeelsisthehistoricalnorm...Global GDP shares through history (PPP terms)Source: Maddison Database, IMF, Deutsche Bank20%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%25050075010001250150017502000IndiaChinaFrance, Germany, Italy, UK and SpainUSAAfricaJapanLatin AmericaFormerUSSR1Europe saw constant economic and power shifts throughout this period. ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.comWorkbasedaroundGrahamAllison’s“Thucydides’Trap”analysisshowsthatoverthepast500years,tensionsbetweenarisingpowerandarulingonehaveendedupinwaronmostoccasions.How the relationship between a ruling power and a rising power has unfolded over 500 plus years..Source: Allison, G. (2017) ‘Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?’, Haughton Mifflin Harcourt, Deutsche Bank. 3RULINGPOWERRISING POWERPortugalSpain1490s1500-1559The HapsburgsFrance1500-1699The HapsburgsOttomanEmpire1619-1648DutchRepublic1648-1688SwedenEngland1680s-1815GreatBritainFrance1831-1856UKFranceRussia1870s-1905GermanyEarly20th century1860-1871ChinaRussiaJapanUSGermany1914-1918UKFranceSovietUnion1939-1945SovietUnion1945-1990sNOWARWARVICTORLEGENDThe HapsburgsFranceUKUKGermanyUSJapan1939-1945US ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.comChina’sGDPrapidlycaughtupwiththeUSfromaroundtheGFC...Bylate2020,itwasontracktoovertaketheUSinUSDtermswithinadecade...Butsincethen,slowinggrowthinChina,andfastergrowthintheUShaslikelyslowedthis.TherapidpostGFCcatch-uphadbeenattheepicentreofthedeterioratingUS/Chinarelationshipandtheirrelativeperformancegoingforwardwilllikelycontinuetodefineit...China’s GDP as a share of US GDP (USD terms) with IMF forecastsSource: IMF, Deutsche Bank40%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%19901995200020052010201520202025Oct 2020 ForecastOct 2023 Forecast ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.comDemographicshavealwaysshapedgeopolitics,ashavingmorepeopleprovidesnationswithgreatereconomicandmilitarypower.Overthelastseveralhundredyears,thechangingsizeofmajorpowers’populationshasbroadlycoincidedwithshiftsinrelativepower,oftenresultinginconflict.Population size (thousands) of major western powers 1500-2000, log scaleSource: Maddison Database, Deutsche Bank 52,5005,00010,00020,00040,00080,000160,000320,00015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000FranceGermanyUKSpainUSAFor several centuries,France had the biggest population in Western Europe, enabling it to pursue expansionist ambitions under Louis XIV, and later Napoleon. England, andlater the UK, is onlya small regional power at the start, but its population catchup in the 18th and 19th centuries helps bring it to the forefrontand coincided with the expansion of the British Empire.Theexplosion in the US population helps it emerge as the dominant global power by the early 20th century. Germany overtakes theFrench population in the late-19th century, giving the country much greater military and economic weight in the 20th century. ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.comLookingforward,theworldwilllikelychangedramaticallyagainwithinourlifetimes.WeareexactlyatthepointwhereChina,IndiaandAfrica’spopulationcrossandallgoonpotentiallyverydifferentjourneys.Fornow,IndiahasfarmoreeconomicmomentumthanAfricaintermsoftakingadvantageofthepotentialdemographicdividend.Weexpectthischartwillshapeglobalgeopoliticsgoingforward...Population (billions) of major regions/countries, with predictions to 2100Source: UN Population Database, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank. Note: Takes the medium fertility forecast. 60.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0195019601970198019902000201020202030204020502060207020802090BillionsAfricaChinaIndiaUSEuropeMiddleEast2022: Populations of China, India and Africa converged. ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 | jim.reid@db.com•Asanexampleoftheshiftinggeopoliticallandscapethroughhistory,intheappendixonpages34-54w