新冠肺炎、停课和学生学习结果：PISA的新全球证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10666COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning OutcomesNew Global Evidence from PISAMaciej JakubowskiTomasz GajderowiczHarry PatrinosEducation Global PracticeJanuary 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10666The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant disrup-tion in schooling worldwide. This paper uses global test score data to estimate learning losses. It models the effect of school closures on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend using data from all rounds of the Programme for International Student Assessment. Scores declined by an average of 14 percent of a standard deviation, roughly equal to seven months of learning. Losses were greater for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures, boys, immigrants, and dis-advantaged students. Educational losses may translate into significant national income losses over time.This paper is a product of the Education Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at hpatrinos@worldbank.org. COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning Outcomes: New Global Evidence from PISA Maciej Jakubowski Harry Patrinos1 University of Warsaw World Bank Tomasz Gajderowicz University of Warsaw JEL No: I19, I20 Keywords: COVID-19; learning loss; student achievement; PISA; international large-scale assessments 1 Maciej Jakubowski, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland (mjakubowski@uw.edu.pl); Tomasz Gajderowicz, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland (tgajderowicz@wne.uw.edu.pl); Harry Anthony Patrinos, World Bank, Washington DC, USA (hpatrinos@worldbank.org). 2 1.IntroductionSchools throughout the world closed in response to COVID-19 beginning in 2020. In some cases, they quickly reopened in 2021, but in some countries, they remained closed longer (Patrinos 2023). Globally, schools were closed for an average of 5.5 months (22 weeks) since the onset of the pandemic, equivalent to two-thirds of an academic year, when localized school closures are considered (UNESCO 2023a). The duration varies by region, from just one month in Oceania, to 2.5 months (10 weeks) in Europe, to as many as 5 months (20 weeks) in Latin America and the Caribbean. Early on, the school closures were expected to contribute to what was already described as a learning crisis (Angrist et al. 2021; World Bank 2017). Country studies show large losses (Alasino et al. 2024; Betthäuser et al. 2023; Carlana and La Ferrara 2023; Donnelly and Patrinos 2021; Engzell et al. 2021; Hammerstein et al. 2021; Jack and Oster 2023; Jack et al 2022; Maldonado and De Witte 2022; Zierer 2021). On average, school closures induced by COVID-19 led to a learning loss of 0.17 of a standard deviation – that is, at least one-third of a year’s worth of learning (Patrinos et al. 2023). Distance learning during the school closures does not seem to have helped very much (Haelermans et al. 2022; Singh et al. 2022); only the duration of school closures led to variations. Most studies observe increases in inequality where certain demographics of students experienced learning losses that were more significant than others. These learning losses could translate to earnings losses and could cost this generation of students trillions of dollars (Psacharopoulos et al. 2021). Also, global studies – that is, studies using data from international assessments where students in many countries take the same tests and under the same conditions, thus, making them comparable across country and time – document significant learning losses (Jakubowski et al 2023; Kennedy and Strietholt 2023). International reading scores declined an average of 3 33 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to more than a