希腊电力系统演变英

The Greek electricity system evolution & the Electricity Highway to Central EuropeNovember 2023–KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A. –Management Consulting –Strategy & OperationsAristotle University of Thessaloniki –School of Electrical and Computer Engineering 2Document Classification: KPMG Public© 2023 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Societe Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.Background to this studyThe scope of this study is the long-term analysis of the Greek electricity market in order to investigate the potential benefits from the operation of a new 9 GW green electricity corridor to Germanyfor both the end-consumers and the Greek national economy.For this purpose, a 30-year study horizon (2026-2055) was used and three (3) scenarios were studied which follow, in general, the main provisions of the revised Greek National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) that is currently under finalization by the Greek State, especiallyregarding the evolution of the system load demand (i.e. 65TWhin 2030) and the RES penetration share (i.e. 80% RES share in 2030) as well as the permanent withdrawal of lignite units by the end of 2028. Appropriate adjustments and extrapolations have been done to various market and system parameters to formulate a realistic long-term electricity market simulation scenario for the entire study horizon based on our experience. The main assumptions of the three scenarios are as follows:2Document Classification: KPMG ConfidentialScenario 1•Four(4)New CCGTs (Average UCAP ≈ 800 MW) operate during the entire study period•BESS penetration according to NECP assumptions during the entire study period•The 9-GW Interconnection to Central Europe is NOT availableScenario 2•Three(3)New CCGTs (Average UCAP ≈ 800 MW) operate during the entire study period •No BESS are considered during the entire study period•The 9-GW Interconnection to Central Europe is availableScenario 3•Three (3) New CCGTs (Average UCAP ≈ 800 MW) operate during the entire study period •Additional PV Capacity with respect to Sc. 1 & 2 and moderate BESS penetrationis considered to increase the annual utilization of the 9-GW Interconnection to Central Europe•The 9-GW Interconnection to Central Europe is availableIntroduction 3Document Classification: KPMG Public© 2023 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Societe Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.Methodological ApproachThe ultimate goal of this analysis is to estimate the total cost of electricity supply to be undertaken by the end-consumers along with the cost/benefit of the national economy associated with the cross-border electricity exchange in each of the three aforementioned scenarios. By comparing these figures in the three scenarios, we can directly estimate the added benefit that the operation of a new 9 GW green electricity corridor to Germany can entail for both the end-consumers and the Greek national economy.In this context, the study is separated in two distinct steps, as follows: 3Document Classification: KPMG ConfidentialCost / Benefit analysis for end-consumers and the national economyDetailed long-term simulation of the Greek wholesale electricity market The scope of this simulation analysis is to perform a long-term forecasting of main wholesale market indicators (e.g. energy generation mix, market clearing prices, uplift account charges, etc.). It is underlined that all these market indicators are forecasted in the finest (hourly) time resolution and are then used in the extensive ex-post calculations that follow in the second step.The said market indicators are used in order to estimate the total cost of electricity supply for the end-consumers along with the cost/benefit of the national economy associated with the cross-border electricity exchange for each of the three scenarios. Introduction 4Document Classification: KPMG Public© 2023 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Societe Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.Software ToolIn this study, the Greek wholesale electricity market was simulated for a future 30-year study period (2026-2055) with the integrated simulation tool “Long-Term Scheduling extended” (LTSx).LTSxwas developed by the Power Systems Lab of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and is capable of realistically simulating the Greek wholesale electricity market in the long-term, by solving sequentially: 4Document Classification: KPMG ConfidentialIntroductionThe aforementioned optimization problems are processed and solved on a day-by-day basis using the approp