北京市可再生能源与电动汽车协同效应研究 Study on the Synergetic Effect Between Renewable Electricity and Electric Vehicles in Beijing 清华大学环境学院 2023.12.7 School of Environment, Tsinghua University December 7, 2023 致谢 本研究由清华大学环境学院鲁玺教授课题组统筹撰写，由能源基金会提供资金支持。 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report is a product of Professor Xi Lu from School of Environment, Tsinghua University and is funded by Energy Foundation China. i 目 录 1 项目背景与目标 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 项目背景 ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 项目开展的政策环境及相关背景 ....................................................................... 1 1.1.2 现状和发展趋势 ................................................................................................... 1 1.1.3 现有工作的不足之处及待解决的问题 ............................................................... 2 1.2 研究目标 ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 研究技术路线 ................................................................................................................ 2 2 北京市各充换电模式发展现状调研 .................................................................................... 3 2.1 概述 ................................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 不同充换电模式技术经济参数比较及发展状况 ........................................................ 3 2.3 北京市电动汽车发展政策调研梳理 ............................................................................ 5 2.3.1 电动汽车保有量规划 ........................................................................................... 5 2.3.2 充换电基础设施建设目标 ................................................................................... 6 2.3.3 有序充换电支持政策 ........................................................................................... 7 2.4 北京市充换电设施基础信息数据库构建 .................................................................... 7 3 北京市风光可再生能源资源分布及供应特征分析 ............................................................ 8 3.1 概述 ................................................................................................................................ 8 3.2 风力发电资源动态供应潜力与变化特征模拟 .......................................................... 10 3.2.1 数据来源 ............................................................................................................. 10 3.2.2 风速数据计算与降尺度校正 ............................................................................. 10 3.2.3 风机发电功率计算 ............................................................................................. 10 3.2.4 风电装机潜力与发电潜力计算 ......................................................................... 12 3.2.5 风电出力曲线模拟及特性分析 ......................................................................... 13 3.3 光伏发电资源动态供应潜力与变化特征模拟 .......................................................... 13 3.3.1 光伏电站建设影响与限制因素 ......................................................................... 13 3.3.2 光伏阵列倾角与方位角 ..................................................................................... 14 3.3.3 光伏发电量及装机量计算 ................................................................................. 15 ii 3.3.4 光伏出力曲线模拟及特性分析 ......................................................................... 17 3.4 北京市屋顶光伏潜力评估 .......................................................................................... 19 3.5 京津唐电网风力发电、太阳能发电装机量预测 ...................................................... 20 4 北京市电动汽车充换电需求时空分布特征模拟 .............................................................. 21 4.1 概述 .............................................................................................................................. 21 4.2 北京市电动汽车发展状况预测 .................................................................................. 21 4.3 电动汽车用能需求空间分布模拟 .............................................................................. 22 4.4 电动汽车用能需求时间规律模拟 .............................................................................. 23 4.4.1 充电模式下电动汽车用能需求时间规律模拟 ................................................. 23 4.4.2 换电模式下电动汽车用能需求时间规律模拟 ................................................. 24 5 北京市电动汽车有序充换电与可再生能源协同消纳多维动态效益评估 ...................... 24 5.1 概述 .............................................................................................................................. 24 5.2 考虑电动汽车有序充换电的电力系统优化模型 ...................................................... 25 5.3 情景设置 ...................................................................................................................... 26 5.4 北京市换电站优化选址及容量配置方案 .................................................................. 27 5.5 电动汽车优化调度场景下电动汽车充电负荷分布 .................................................. 28 5.6 电动汽车优化调度场景下电网效益 .......................................................................... 29 5.7 电动汽车优化调度场景下环境效益 ....