油脂日报：库存下降，油脂全面上涨

油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2405合约7412元/吨，环比上涨114元，涨幅1.56%；昨日收盘豆油2405合约7484元/吨，环比上涨74元，涨幅1.00%；昨日收盘菜油2405合约8017元/吨，环比上涨86元，涨幅1.08%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价7499元/吨，环比上涨59元，涨幅0.79%，现货基差P05+87，环比下跌42元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7999元/吨，环比上涨22元/吨，涨幅0.28%，现货基差Y05+515，环比下跌18元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格无报价。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：2024年1月上旬棕榈油进口实际装船5.31万吨，同比下降66.82%。本期进口实际装船5.31万吨，同比下降66.82%；本月进口预报装船9.02万吨，同比下降71.62%；下月进口预报装船0.00万吨，同比下降100.00%。本期实际到港6.93万吨，同比下降16.85%；下期预报到港3.72万吨，同比下降71.80%；本月实际到港10.65万吨，同比下降50.52%；下月预报到港1.23万吨，同比下降96.98%。2024年1月上旬菜籽油进口实际装船3.03万吨，同比下降60.41%。本期进口实际装船3.03万吨，同比下降60.41%；本月进口预报装船2.04万吨，同比下降93.11%；下月进口预报装船0.00万吨，同比下降100.00%。本期实际到港3.90万吨，同比上升377.97%；下期预报到港9.82万吨，同比下降45.41%；本月实际到港13.72万吨，同比下降27.01%；下月预报到港1.25万吨，同比下降90.03%。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 昨日三大油脂价格震荡上涨，受BMD毛棕榈油上涨提振，叠加节前库存持续下降，棕榈油领涨三大油脂。棕榈油方面，国内由于进口利润不佳，进口预计下滑，春节备货开始有所启动，棕榈油日度成交量有所增加，近期棕榈油小幅去库，对棕榈油有一定的支撑。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要......................................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析..............................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷........................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.......................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨...........................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................