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2023年12月进出口数据点评:12月出口同比增速增幅扩大,2024年出口对经济增长拖累作用有望减缓

2024-01-12中航证券M***
2023年12月进出口数据点评:12月出口同比增速增幅扩大,2024年出口对经济增长拖累作用有望减缓

 1   Wind 出口品 2023-12 2023-11 2023-10 2023-09 2023-08 价 量 价 量 价 量 价 量 价 量 水海产品 -15.8% 4.1% -14.9% 9.1% -15.1% 6.3% -8.6% 0.0% -9.7% -3.3% 粮食 3.6% 8.9% 29.2% -20.0% 7.5% -6.9% -1.8% 16.0% 20.9% -25.0% 成品油(海关口径) -7.5% -39.7% -3.8% -17.3% -4.8% 15.9% -17.0% -3.5% -27.4% 23.2% 稀土 -7.0% -20.2% -55.3% 42.6% -67.3% 19.1% -30.4% -9.1% -47.8% 30.0% 中药材及中式成药 5.9% -6.6% - - - - - - - - 肥料 -24.2% -4.1% -26.1% 53.2% -37.7% 5.8% -36.4% 20.1% -49.9% 22.7% 箱包及类似容器 -7.5% 10.8% -18.5% 16.7% -22.9% 12.0% -19.1% 11.5% -21.0% 15.4% 鞋靴 -11.6% 0.1% -18.4% -2.0% -19.6% -3.0% -20.0% 3.0% -20.3% -2.2% 陶瓷产品 -22.4% 9.3% -25.3% 4.1% -38.0% 8.8% -36.8% 16.8% -28.7% 7.9% 钢材 -39.5% 43.1% -38.4% 43.3% -39.4% 53.3% -41.9% 61.8% -48.4% 34.6% 未锻造的铝及铝材 -8.0% 4.0% -9.8% 7.5% -10.5% -8.1% -14.8% -5.0% -17.1% -9.3% 手机 -16.5% 19.3% 24.5% 24.2% 10.7% 10.1% -12.0% 5.5% -16.7% -4.6% 家用电器 -11.7% 30.0% -10.0% 24.3% -10.8% 21.0% -8.6% 23.0% -12.1% 26.7% 集成电路 -4.9% 7.8% -1.7% 13.9% -20.8% 5.3% -8.9% 4.3% -14.1% 11.1% 汽车和汽车底盘 12.6% 35.0% -9.0% 40.5% -4.2% 51.4% 4.5% 38.9% -4.8% 41.9% 船舶 106.9% -37.9% 71.9% 25.5% 131.9% -42.1% -3.3% 15.7% 48.8% -5.4% 进口品 2023-12 价量 2023-11 价量 2023-10 价量 2023-09 价量 2023-08 价量 肉及杂碎鲜、干水果及坚果 粮食大豆 食用植物油铁矿砂及其精矿铜矿砂及其精矿 煤及褐煤 原油成品油(海关口径) 天然气医药材及药品 肥料美容化妆品及洗护用品 初级形状的塑料天然及合成橡胶(包括胶乳) 原木及锯材 纸浆钢材 未锻造的铜及铜材 机床二极管及类似半导体器件 集成电路汽车和汽车底盘 空载重量超过2吨的飞机 -10.9%-19.1% -15.6%6.9% -24.0%33.3% -13.1%-6.9% -19.4%-10.9% 33.9%11.0% 7.8%18.1% -19.4%53.0% -5.1%0.6% -4.4%45.2% -20.4%23.0% 26.8%-9.1% -42.6%107.4% -2.3%-19.2% -6.7%2.7% 0.8%-4.9% -2.1%-10.3% -30.5%50.4% -8.5%-5.0% 3.6%-10.6% -7.5%14.4% -27.2%12.8% -8.8%6.0% -7.9%33.3% -29.2%-54.8% -16.3%-16.4% -12.7%-4.0% -22.2%34.0% -14.4%7.8% -18.9%-19.3% 24.2%3.9% 10.3%1.2% -22.2%34.7% -3.9%-9.2% -7.0%34.2% -25.4%6.1% -7.1%29.5% -44.0%85.3% -11.8%-14.2% -8.1%-6.5% -3.0%-8.1% -8.4%-8.8% -32.1%29.7% -6.0%-18.7% 3.0%2.0% 2.5%-8.1% -1.4%-17.1% 8.0%0.5% -4.4%14.3% -56.9%5.9% -22.1%-12.7% 18.5%25.6% -21.2%38.1% -17.6%24.6% -22.4%28.4% 16.7%4.6% 9.2%23.5% -22.3%23.3% -4.5%13.5% -4.3%63.2% -32.5%15.5% 19.0%20.2% -44.8%98.3% -16.1%-10.4% -11.1%0.0% -9.1%-1.6% -11.4%-2.4% -34.4%34.4% -11.7%-13.0% 3.6%23.7% 17.1%-25.1% -3.7%-4.6% -11.7%1.9% 11.8%0.0% 31.2%-58.8% -21.2%-9.2% 31.8%23.6% -21.1%-1.8% -20.4%-7.4% -24.4%17.9% 2.5%1.5% 8.3%-1.3% -21.1%27.5% -12.1%13.7% -9.8%84.6% -33.8%0.0% -7.3%34.1% -46.4%59.7% -14.5%-10.6% -14.0%-3.3% -15.9%-3.1% -14.3%-13.5% -35.1%30.4% 3.4%-28.1% 4.9%-5.8% 70.7%-39.9% -12.2%-7.9% -7.3%-10.5% 4.9%-12.5% -35.7%-50.0% -19.6%-4.5% 10.5%13.0% -17.1%14.3% -23.0%30.5% -38.1%90.0% -3.9%10.6% 1.4%18.9% -34.0%50.5% -23.2%30.9% -23.8%86.8% -29.0%22.7% -27.1%40.3% -44.0%-3.2% -0.5%-26.4% -20.6%4.8% -21.4%10.2% -15.2%-19.2% -33.4%26.1% -1.2%-28.1% -2.2%-5.0% 64.4%-42.5% -1.6%-22.8% -7.4%-3.1% 8.4%-12.5% -22.4%-12.5%