PVC周报：低价货源成交改善，PVC周度价格重心平稳

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC基本面情况仍旧偏弱，PVC装置开工稳定，供应维持高位；国内下游需求无亮点，且有进一步走弱预期；供需双弱的情况下，库存维持高位，未能有效去化；前期原料端因电力不稳问题，导致电石企业开工不稳，导致PVC成本支撑走强，目前随着电力问题解决，电石开工提升，电石价格或有走弱预期。但电石法PVC生产企业出现亏损，成本端支撑仍存；出口方面随着价格走低，低价货源出口阶段性好转；国内宏观经济政策仍有宽松预期，预计下周价格重心或稳定运行为主，建议暂观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至1月11日，周度平均开工负荷率在76.38%，环比上周提升2.27个百分点。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com PVC产量及开工率：截至1月11日，整体开工负荷78.37%，环比下降0.02个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷77.95%，环比下降0.04个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷79.6%，环比提升0.03个百分点。 从业资格号：F03119179 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC检修：截至1月11日，停车及检修造成的损失量在4.308万吨，较上周下降0.561万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周略降。 PVC库存：截至1月11日，仓库总库存40.33万吨，较上一期增加1.12万吨。 需求：国内下游制品企业开工变化不大，下游刚需寻低拿货。但出口方面低价货源成交部分好转。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨...................................................