聚烯烃日报：非标品排产高位，价差持续走低

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。国际油价窄幅震荡，聚烯烃成本支撑偏弱，聚烯烃偏弱震荡，夜盘反弹，聚丙烯拉涨较多。PE开工率小幅下降，仍处于阶段性高位，PP开工率维持，PE供应端压力较大。HDPE排产占比达历史高位，LLDPE开工占比较低，HD注塑-LL价差持续走低。下游需求季节性转弱，弱现实需求未改变。LL进口窗口维持打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存63.5万吨，较上一工作日累库2.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-10元/吨，PP华东基差在-30元/吨，基差小幅走强。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际油价窄幅震荡，聚烯烃成本支撑偏弱，PDH制PP生产利润小幅亏损。HDPE排产占比达历史高位，LLDPE开工占比较低，HD注塑-LL价差持续走低。 齐鲁石化7PE装置、浙江石化30 PE装置停车检修，福建联合22 PP装置停车检修，PE开工率小幅下降，仍处于阶段性高位，PP开工率维持。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，内外盘聚烯烃价差维持，LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：建议观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................