聚烯烃日报：聚丙烯开工回升，盘面窄幅震荡

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。美联储暂停加息，国际油价反弹，聚烯烃成本支撑仍偏弱，聚烯烃盘面窄幅震荡，现货价格横盘整理。PE开工率未变，开工负荷仍至高位，PP开工率小幅反弹，PE供应端压力较大。PE非标品与PP非标品排产占比较高，PE非标价差持续走低。下游需求季节性转弱，弱现实需求未改变。西北欧价格小幅走弱，人民币汇率走强，LL进口窗口维持打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存62万吨，较上一日去库1万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在+20元/吨，PP华东基差在-30元/吨，基差维持。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际油价反弹，聚烯烃成本支撑仍偏弱，PDH制PP生产利润维持亏损。PE非标品与PP非标品排产占比较高，HD注塑、HD薄膜、HD中空、PP均聚注塑以及PP低融共聚与标品价差持续走低。 宁波富德40PP装置、宁夏宝丰三期50PP装置开车重启，PE开工率未变，开工负荷仍至高位，PP开工率小幅反弹，PE供应端压力较大。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，西北欧聚烯烃价格小幅走弱，人民币汇率走强，LL进口窗口持续打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：建议观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................