2024 年 ： 能源展望

The Energy Strategist Year Ahead 2024 report forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $90/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $86/bbl in 2024. The report notes that oil demand has grown by 2.1mn b/d YoY in 2023, driven by lower energy prices and a post-Covid-19 recovery in China. In 2024, oil demand is expected to grow by 1.1mn b/d as emerging markets benefit from the end of the US monetary tightening cycle, while non-OPEC+ supply rises 1.2mn b/d. However, OPEC+ is expected to add 0.5mn b/d of production cuts in its next meeting, which could put downward pressure on prices. The report also notes that recession, faster-than-expected US shale growth, and geopolitical risks could also impact oil prices. Despite these risks, OPEC+ and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) support are seen as potential upside risks to oil prices.