2023年韩国房产流动性和房贷利率调查

UnderstandingKorea real estateliquidity flows and cap rates REPORT FIGURES CORE RESEARCHOCTOBER2023 Executive Summary Investment activity set torecoverafter2024 Waiting for the end of the tunnel High rates and slow growth cause concern Risk appetite remains lowF7% ot resoonsents ex3ressing a lowe'rs: Interest rate hikas on pauseWhilo os: major Asi: =seitie ma kots I svcpi.! fi.+.hr le'ts. 'h. Iike? tt h: : sire.perenele L lel. 3. sete.'A n? Nearly 66% of CBREprofessionals expect investmentactivity to pick up after 2024 New developments still limitedpad wi rr roa.s d. lo gronetruct n nate gd saainina ojectinacrg causing Elom o cisplayst crgeni+ hnt s to sell. Market uncertainty prompts newapproachestoinvestmentAm o fe s.lstained h on interest retet forl..Italors ao J.il a rg sl a.sisef as leerege red.irtion end va ue add tac ovc ItJ'T 2. Invastment risks parsistigli nte'ce:ares st cxceraulene s-slcwee:loin arwih rh iryHxlrs rjrorconcens Expected price gap projected to narrowAs the sxertar prire aa. bawrer sr le"sand Jyors gradja l: e rowa, tra sactionvoh.ine s: frsre:Hsl Hrd Ir isr: in thh sHron: halrct the yeer. Risk appetite remains low Invcstmcnt scntimcntweakens due to lowgrowth and highinterest rates •Com'ncrcial real stete invostmcnt sontiment hasweakened sigrificantly acrcss Asia Pacific. inc udingseccnd half af 2022 •AccC'ding lc C3R='s Q1 2023 Asia Pdcific Cap RaloSurvey. w ich pclled CBR='s a pitsl narkets and valuatianμr u fessorials, aboul, 70% cf Kurua- busod r u23uriderilsatstec: that inveatment. senti nent n the market in the first.half uf this year was lowar or at a s'milar level womparud tcthie endl cf t.he prev aus year. •At the same time. hovgar, the oroporticr u dcrriesticrespondents expecting nvestment ta *ecnver in theseccnd halt of the vear was rriora than 30%, above that ctseveral major Asia Pacif markets incl uding Hrn K ang.Singa pore. and A.ustralia. Net purchasc dcmanddriven by funds andcompanies •Cespitc the overall doclino ir invostmont scntiment inKorea. CBRE's analysis cf invescment intenticr s 3y buyerLyps rovoals thal roal oslale funds and corporalions rstainstrong willingness te buv. fe lovec by REITs. •CBRE has obsurvod sorelal icccrl casos of clurnoslicomparies wit higf renta burdens and a neec to sacurfie spave pure nasiny assels Jirec lly. In H1 2023, Nexonpurchased s 50& share in Autaway Tower, while HvundaiVutor Cc'ripany =cqu'6d a 5o% sr=l6 in Scale Tuwur.hcth in teD. I hese firms intend tc. uilise the praperries:=s their headquarters. •Ihia year hsa slso seen several domestic inarit.utions,which have baen experiencing stress in their overseas redestate po'tfalilos, start tc raalise praits hy sel ingdcestic assets. Korean developers =re axhibiting astrong willincnoss a scll dlue: to hir Irtorast rstos ancincreased developr en: costs. Officc investmentfalls to lowest infive years •Koroa commercial roal cstato invostment volumc roechedKRW trillion in H1 2023, atout 30% of last ve=r's tctal.This is a similar ioduclio ir volumc Lo Lhal obscrvod in 12029 at th onset of tha CovID-19 pa nde nic.. •Thc dccl ne in officc invuslrnuril dcLivily has boonespecially ncticeable. Athaugh seversl cffice transact answeic firnalised in H' 2023, office invuslrrluril d urinig L'nupericd barely hresched KRw 3 trillion, the: awest level irthe past five yeers. •In r:nntrast, Irgistics imvestmen: vnl.Jme totalled KRw 1.9trillion, dccounting for 32% of th total. While the sacor iswit.nessin elevsted vacsncy risk due ta lsrge supply: thetirst six rnorths ot the yea' sow the cc'riplecion s' sgvarslpre-aurchased asset3. •Hozel and reil'nvestrnent vc urne declir ed along withthe [ost-pancemic recovary in tourism and consumptlon. 02Investor concerns:High rates, low growth, limited liquidityand a widening price gap Fcars overlow growth amidinterest rates peak •After the g oba eccnomy cllinto reccssion in 202c <lue tothe impact of measures to contain the spread cf covID-13.,th inlrd uclion of various ccoiurmic slimul us ncasurosresulted in a rerord inrrease ir consuner prices c.ue tobunda'l liquidily. •Starting last year.th u.s. begar to rapidly hike its lbaseirnlures. ralu Lo al oviale high inflalioni, vilh E uiropeari andAsian asuntries fallnwing suit, The moretary policies Fsveput duwrwrc pr ussu'u ur tne 6ccnorry, arid rriajorourtries expec: 2023 eccnnmic growth tc he Inver t.hanthat of last vear. •In January 2023, Kcrea's hase interest rste ni. 3.h%, :hehighest level sinca the 2008 lobal Financial C risis ( =C).Since then, the Bank a' Kares Crok? has frazen baseinterest rates several cimes, maintining theim at th sa'TieInvrl. High borrowing costsand availability ofloans remain key •Moro t'an half of cBRE cxxrs pol od in the Cap RatoSurvey cited centra ba nks: policies of mintaining highinloicsl, 1aloe nd cconomic unco Lainly as ris< faclois foreal estate investnent n the Recond half af the year. •Arricony Kuroan ruspondcrnls. luari size and lcndcrs'#ttitudes w