聚烯烃周报：油价大幅回落，油制成本支撑下行

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议轻仓逢低做多。本周聚烯烃震荡走势，PDH制PP亏损加剧，装置开工率偏低，丙烷价格近期维持强势，有成本改善预期。国际油价大幅回落，聚烯烃油头利润修复，油制成本支撑减弱。聚烯烃停车生产装置陆续开工重启，开工率小幅提升，负荷仍偏低，供应端压力不大，库存维持去库。下游总体开工下降，PE下游农膜厂开工旺季相较往年提前结束，下游需求偏弱。LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口依然关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存63.5万吨，较上周累库0.5万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差+30，PP华东基差-90，LL基差走强，PP基差走弱。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油大幅回落，聚烯烃油头利润修复，LL周内利润增加519元/吨，至盈亏平衡线之上；PP周内利润增加507元/吨，丙烷强势，PDH制PP利润仍亏损较大。PE开工率91.4%（+1.1%），PP开工率86.9%（+1.2%），聚烯烃装置陆续开车重启，开工率小幅回升。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工旺季相较往年提前结束，开工率下降3%，PP下游BOPP开工率下降2%，其他下游开工率未有明显变化，总体需求偏弱，维持刚需采购。 ■策略 供需双弱，建议轻仓逢低做多，交易宏观与成本改善预期。 ■风险 政策执行力度，原油价格波动，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................