鸡蛋周报20231105正信期货鸡蛋周报 20231105分析师：黄秋实投资咨询证号：Z0014738Email：huangqs@mfc.com.cn 23主要观点行情回顾基本面分析1目 录 ONTENTSCPPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/ 美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/kexue/ 物理课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/wuli/ 化学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/huaxue/ 生物课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shengwu/ 地理课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/dili/ 历史课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/lishi/ 4价差跟踪 主要观点鸡蛋 ：电商双十一促销效果未及预期，短期或继续震荡为主本周鸡蛋主产区均价4.43元/斤，较上周上涨0.01元/斤，涨幅0.23%，主产区价格呈先涨后跌趋势。主销区均价4.39元/斤，较上周上涨0.01元/斤，涨幅0.23%。蛋价跌至低位后，市场货源流通有所好转，终端需求采买积极性有所提高。整体来看，各环节谨慎心态增加，拿货积极性再次降低。周内销区需求转强后再度转弱，销区销量环比降低。受“买跌不买涨”心态影响，淘汰积极性增加。农贸市场成交清淡，产品消化缓慢，多按需采购。策略：近期电商双十一促销效果未及预期，市场整体走货有转缓趋势。餐饮及学校、机构等无增量采购预期，且替代品猪肉、蔬菜等价格处于低位，拖累蛋价。从前期鸡苗销量推算，新开产蛋鸡数量开始逐步增加，但进入产蛋高峰期尚需时日。各环节库存基本正常，蛋价继续上涨缺乏需求支撑，短期或继续震荡为主。建议之前低位的多单，利润落袋为主，至少带上保本。 行情回顾本周鸡蛋合约，近强远弱数据来源：文华财经 正信期货 基本面分析关键词类别因素综述现货价格主产区本周鸡蛋主产区均价4.43元/斤，较上周上涨0.01元/斤，涨幅0.23%，主产区价格呈先涨后跌趋势。主销区本周鸡蛋主销区均价4.39元/斤，较上周上涨0.01元/斤，涨幅0.23%，交投氛围有所好转，市场价格稳中偏强。需求销区销量本周对全国五个代表销区市场进行数据监测统计，本周鸡蛋销量为7739.86吨，较上周下跌3.25%。供给淘鸡出栏本周对全国11个重点产区19个代表市场的淘汰鸡出栏量进行监测统计，总出栏量48.89万只，环比增幅2.73%。库存生产流通截至本周四，生产环节库存为1.05天，较上周四增加17.98%；流通环节库存为1.55天，较上周四增加3.33%。养殖成本利润本周蛋鸡养殖成本为4.05元/斤，较上周下跌0.03元/斤，环比跌幅0.74%；养殖盈利为0.38元/斤，较上周上涨0.04元/斤，环比涨幅11.76%。 基本面分析3.1 本周产销区蛋价同步继续回落。本周鸡蛋主产区均价4.43元/斤，较上周上涨0.01元/斤，涨幅0.23%，主产区价格呈先涨后跌趋势。主销区均价4.39元/斤，较上周上涨0.01元/斤，涨幅0.23%。蛋价跌至低位后，市场货源流通有所好转，终端需求采买积极性有所提高。数据来源：我的钢铁网，正信期货3.544.555.562023-01-102023-01-172023-01-242023-01-312023-02-072023-02-142023-02-212023-02-282023-03-072023-03-142023-03-212023-03-282023-04-042023-04-112023-04-182023-04-252023-05-022023-05-092023-05-162023-05-232023-05-302023-06-062023-06-132023-06-202023-06-272023-07-042023-07-112023-07-182023-07-252023-08-012023-08-082023-08-152023-08-222023-08-292023-09-052023-09-122023-09-192023-09-262023-10-032023-10-102023-10-172023-10-242023-10-31主产区均价（单位：元/斤）3.544.555.562023-01-012023-01-082023-01-152023-01-222023-01-292023-02-052023-02-122023-02-192023-02-262023-03-052023-03-122023-03-192023-03-262023-04-022023-04-092023-04-162023-04-232023-04-302023-05-072023-05-142023-05-212023-05-282023-06-042023-06-112023-06-182023-06-252023-07-022023-07-092023-07-162023-07-232023-07-302023-08-062023-08-132023-08-202023-08-272023-09-032023-09-102023-09-172023-09-242023-10-012023-10-082023-10-152023-10-222023-10-29主销区均价（单位：元/斤） 基本面分析3.2 本周销区销量环比降低。本周对全国五个代表销区市场进行数据监测统计，本周鸡蛋销量为7739.86吨，较上周下跌3.25%。整体来看，各环节谨慎心态增加，拿货积极性再次降低。周内销区需求转强后再度转弱，销区销量环比降低。数据来源：我的钢铁网，正信期货40004500500055006000650070007500800085002022-07-292022-08-292022-09-292022-10-292022-11-292022-12-292023-01-292023-02-282023-03-292023-04-292023-05-292023-06-292023-07-292023-08-292023-09-292023-10-29鸡蛋周销量（单位：吨） 基本面分析3.3 本周淘鸡出栏量呈增加走势本周对全国11个重点产区19个代表市场的淘汰鸡出栏量进行监测统计，总出栏量48.89万只，环比增幅2.73%。受“买跌不买涨”心态影响，淘汰积极性增加。农贸市场成交清淡，产品消化缓慢，多按需采购。数据来源：我的钢铁网，正信期货253035404550556065702022-08-052022-09-052022-10-052022-11-052022-12-052023-01-052023-02-052023-03-052023-04-052023-05-052023-06-052023-07-052023-08-052023-09-052023-10-05淘汰鸡周度出栏数：（单位：万只） 基本面分析3.4 本周生产及流通环节库存均有增加截至本周四，生产环节库存为1.05天，较上周四增加17.98%；流通环节库存为1.55天，较上周四增加3.33%。下游亦为规避风险采货谨慎，当前生产及流通环节出货均遇阻，库存环比增加。数据来源：我的钢铁网，正信期货00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82022-12-012022-12-082022-12-152022-12-222022-12-292023-01-052023-01-122023-01-192023-01-262023-02-022023-02-092023-02-162023-02-232023-03-022023-03-092023-03-162023-03-232023-03-302023-04-062023-04-132023-04-202023-04-272023-05-042023-05-112023-05-182023-05-252023-06-012023-06-082023-06-152023-06-222023-06-292023-07-062023-07-132023-07-202023-07-272023-08-032023-08-102023-08-172023-08-242023-08-312023-09-072023-09-142023-09-212023-09-282023-10-052023-10-122023-10-192023-10-262023-11-02生产环节库存可用天数00.511.522.52023-01-012023-01-082023-01-152023-01-222023-01-292023-02-052023-02-122023-02-192023-02-262023-03-052023-03-122023-03-192023-03-262023-04-022023-04-092023-04-162023-04-232023-04-302023-05-072023-05-142023-05-212023-05-282023-06-042023-06-112023-06-182023-06-252023-07-022023-07-092023-07-162023-07-232023-07-302023-08-062023-08-132023-08-202023-08-272023-09-032023-09-102023-09-172023-09-242023-10-012023-10-082023-10-152023-10-222023-10-29流通环节库存可用天数 基本面分析3.5 本周蛋鸡养殖成本环比下降，养殖盈利有所提升。本周蛋鸡养殖成本为4.05元/斤，较上周下跌0.03元/斤，环比跌幅0.74%；周内玉米、豆粕均下跌，蛋鸡养殖成本环比下降。养殖盈利为0.38元/斤，较上周上涨0.04元/斤，环比涨幅11.76%。由于本周鸡蛋均价环比变化不大，养殖成本下降，致使养殖盈利有所提升。数据来源：我的钢铁网,正信期货-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.43.73.83.944.14.24.34.44.52023-01-062023-01-132023-01-202023-01-272023-02-032023-02-102023-02-172023-02-242023-03-032023-03-102023-03-172023-03-242023-03-31202