中国水泥行业碳中和路径研究

China Building Materials Academy Co., Ltd.July17, 2023 关于作者 （作者姓名、单位和职务、简短介绍及联系方式（邮箱））何捷教授级高工hejie2007@139.com崔敬轩高级工程师cuijingxuan87@163.com聂卿教授级高工nieqing@126.com萧瑛教授级高工13911154918@139.com倪亚玲助理工程师243876811@qq.com ABOUT THE AUTHORS (Name, title, organization, brief introduction and contact information (emailaddress))He JieProfessorCBMAhejie2007@139.comCui JingxuanSenior EngineerCBMAcuijingxuan87@163.comNieQingProfessorCBMAnieqing@126.comXiao YingProfessorCBMA13911154918@139.comNi YalingAssistant EngineerCBMA243876811@qq.com 致谢 本研究由【中国建筑材料科学研究总院有限公司】统筹撰写，由能源基金会提供资金支持。 本研究是【能源基金会工业项目支持的课题，重点研究中国水泥行业碳中和路径】。 在项目研究过程中，研究团队得到了【中国水泥协会、生态环境部环境规划院、华新水泥股份有限公司、唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司、武安市新峰水泥有限责任公司】的大力支持，在此向他们表示诚挚感谢。 研究团队同时感谢以下专家在项目研究过程中作出的贡献： 【王郁涛中国水泥协会】【范永斌中国水泥协会】【严刚生态环境部环境规划院】【陈潇君生态环境部环境规划院】【李叶青华新水泥股份有限公司】【杨宏兵华新水泥股份有限公司】【孔庆辉唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司】【李衍唐山冀东水泥股份有限公司】【田海奎武安市新峰水泥有限责任公司】 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report is a product of [China Building Materials Academy Co., Ltd.] and is fundedby Energy Foundation China. This report is [part of the research project under Energy Foundation China’sIndustryProgram, which isResearch onCarbonNeutralityPathwaysofChina's CementIndustry] The team is grateful for the generous support it received throughout this researchfrom [China Cement Association,Chinese Academy ofEnvironmental Planning,Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd., Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd., Wu'an Xinfeng CementCo., Ltd]. The team would like to thank the following experts for their contribution to thisresearch:[Wang Yutao,China Cement Association] [Fan Yongbin,China Cement Association][Yan Gang,Chinese Academy ofEnvironmental Planning][Chen Xiaojun,Chinese Academy ofEnvironmental Planning][Li Yeqing,Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd.][Yang Hongbing,Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd.][KongQinghui,Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd.][Li Yan,Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd.][Tian Haikui,Wu'an Xinfeng Cement Co., Ltd.] 目录 1.中国水泥行业发展现状............................................................................................11.1.产量进入高位平台期.....................................................................................11.2.消费集中在房地产和基础设施建设领域.....................................................11.3.熟料进口量小幅波动.....................................................................................21.4.熟料产能过剩局面仍未改变.........................................................................31.5.技术装备水平短期内不具备跨越式发展可能.............................................42.水泥行业碳排放现状................................................................................................42.1.工艺过程CO2排放（E过程）........................................................................42.2.燃料燃烧CO2排放（E燃烧）........................................................................52.3.电力消耗间接CO2排放（E间接）................................................................52.4.原材料及产品运输CO2排放........................................................................62.5.单位水泥熟料CO2排放总量（碳排放强度E!"!）....................................62.6. 2007年-2022年中国水泥行业碳排放分析..................................................63.水泥行业碳中和路径及关键减碳技术....................................................................73.1.碳中和愿景下熟料与水泥需求.....................................................................93.1.1.水泥熟料消费关联因素趋势分析....................................................101）经济发展形势预测................................................................................102）产业结构形势分析................................................................................103）人口及城镇化发展形势........................................................................104）固定资产投资趋势................................................................................113.1.2.水泥熟料与水泥消费量预测结果....................................................113.2.燃料替代情景...............................................................................................123.2.1.固体废物燃料....................................................................................123.2.2.生物质燃料........................................................................................143.2.3.其他新型燃料....................................................................................143.2.4.燃料替代情景下的碳减排效果........................................................14 3.3.能效提升情景...............................................................................................163.4.低碳水泥情景...............................................................................................183.5. CCUS技术情景...........................................................................................203.5.1.国内外发展现状................................................................................203.5.2. CCUS政策导向................................................................................233.5.3.实现碳中和目标过程中CCUS作用...............................................263.5.4. CCUS技术应用预测........................................................................273.6.碳中和创新技术...........................................................................................293.6.1.外燃式旋窑碳捕