聚烯烃日报：原油再破高点，市场消化前期涨幅

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。布伦特原油价格持续走高，突破下半年价格高点，聚烯烃生产利润亏损加剧。成本端支撑较强，下游工厂需求缓慢恢复，聚烯烃基差走强。受广东石化40PE、烟台万华30PP等装置停车影响，开工率小幅下降。石化库存依然维持低位，上游库存压力不大。PE进口维持微利，PP进口窗口提升至盈亏平衡线之上。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存68万吨，较上一工作日增加5万吨，周末累库。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-40元/吨，PP华东基差在-70元/吨，基差走强。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 生产利润及国内开工方面，受原油价格连续上涨影响，原油制聚烯烃的生产利润亏损加剧，丙烷跟随原油，价格强势，PDH制PP生产利润持续亏损。 多套大型装置停车如广东石化40PE、烟台万华30PP等停车检修，开工率小幅降低。聚烯烃非标品与标品价差持续回落。 进出口方面，PE进口维持微利，PP进口窗口提升至盈亏平衡线之上。 ■策略 （1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.......................................................