PTA月度策略报告：成本推涨的独角戏高潮已过

2023年08月09日 成本推涨的独角戏高潮已过 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 成本方面，支持较为稳定。原油供应趋紧已是事实，宏观对9月是否加息仍有分歧。PX方面，整体供应水平还是处于较低水平，而且当下油品对甲苯和二甲苯的需求仍然较强，PXN还处于高位 供应方面，开工稳定在75%-80%的水平。从已宣布的检修计划来看，仅中泰石化可能在8月重启其120万吨装置。虽然加工费已经低至冰点，但并未引发大面积计划为的降负。8月台风天气或将影响物流，不排除阶段性流通性趋紧。 相关报告 20230710《成本支撑驱动PTA形成突破》20230717《成本推涨行情难以延续》20230724《装置集中重启，成本影响走势》20230731《成本助推上涨，行业利润集中在PX环节》 需求方面，无功无过，保持现状。聚酯在8月预计还将维持90%以上的开工，但存在下滑的风险。虽然现在库存处于低位，但聚酯产品多数理论生产亏损，预计月末工厂有可能开启减产计划，而减产执行的力度将取决于“金九银十”传统旺季是否如期启动。 风险提示：聚酯开工大幅下滑 目录 观点摘要：....................................................................................................................................................................... 1一、行情回顾................................................................................................................................................................... 4二、基本面梳理................................................................................................................................................................ 5（一）蛰伏两月，突破创高................................................................................................................................................... 5（二）一反惯例的加工费与开工率走势............................................................................................................................... 8（三）产量节节高，库存处于中性..................................................................................................................................... 10（四）中流砥柱般的聚酯高开工，攻守兼备的低库存...................................................................................................... 11四、后市展望及主要结论............................................................................................................................................... 15 图表目录 图1：PTA期货行情···································································································································································4图2：PTA基差走势···································································································································································4图3：国际原油期货价格走势····················································································································································5图4：PTA上游原料价格走势···················································································································································5图5：PX国内开工率··································································································································································7图6：PX加工费··········································································································································································7图7：PXN价差走势···································································································································································7图8：PX-MX价差走势······························································································································································7图9：PTA现货加工费情况·······················································································································································8图10：PTA现货加工费月均对比··············································································································································8图11：PTA加工利润情况·························································································································································8图12：国内PTA开工率····························································································································································8图13：PTA周度社会库存·······················································································································································10图14：国内PTA工厂库存天数···············································································································································10图15：国内PTA周度产量······················································································································································10图16：PTA出口情况·······························································································································································10图17：聚酯工厂开工情况························································································································································12图18：聚酯产销情况································································································································································12图19涤纶长丝装置负荷情况·························································································································