聚烯烃周报：下游采购积极性不足，聚烯烃仍弱势

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 塑料观望，PP逢高做空套保。聚烯烃检修量级有所增加而开工偏低，下游订单及原料库存天数仍维持低位，需求改善不明显，下游对聚烯烃采购的积极性未被带动，中游环节去库速率偏慢，基差偏弱；进口窗口对聚烯烃价格有限制，宏观政策预期交易氛围一旦褪去，PP或面临估值修复压力。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 石化库存62.5万吨，较上周五-0.5万吨，库存偏低。 基差方面，PE华东基差-20，PP华东基差-30，基差弱。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 生产利润及国内开工方面，LL原油制生产利润略有盈利，PP原油制生产利润持续亏损，PDH制PP生 产 利 润 维 持 高 位 。卓 创PE开 工 率82.6%（-0.8%） ，PP开 工 率80.9%（-3.2%），PP周度开工率下滑较多。 进出口方面，PE进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口在盈亏平衡点附近，进口窗口仍是接下来限制反弹空间的重要因素。 下游复苏情况一般，订单依然偏弱，下游订单及原料库存天数仍维持低位。 ■策略 宏观政策预期交易氛围一旦褪去，PP或面临估值修复压力。塑料观望，PP逢高做空套保。 ■风险 原油价格波动，经济恢复预期及宏观氛围变动 目录 策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点..............................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃基差结构..................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比..............................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃进出口利润..............................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润..............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃库存........................................................................................................................................................................................10 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................4图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................5图4:PE开工率|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................................5图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................5图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图7:PP开工率|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................................5图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................6图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................6图10:LL开工占比|单位：%.............................................................................................................................................................6图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................6图12:LD开工占比|单位：%.............................................................................................................................................................6图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................7图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................7图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................7图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨........................................................................