聚烯烃日报：PP估值面临修复压力，进口窗口限制反弹空间

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 塑料观望，PP逢高做空套保。下游订单及原料库存天数维持低位，下游对聚烯烃采购的积极性未被带动，中游环节去库速率偏慢，基差偏弱；进口窗口对聚烯烃价格有限制，在化工板块转弱的氛围下，供应压力更大的PP估值面临修复压力，进口窗口限制反弹空间。 梁宗泰(020-83901031*liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉(020-83901030*cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存66.5万吨，相比昨日-1.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-40元/吨，PP华东基差在-40元/吨，基差稳定。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 生产利润及国内开工方面，LL油头法生产利润稳定，油制PP生产利润亏损，PDH制PP利润维持高位震荡。 总PE开工率维持低位，标品LL开工尚可，主要是HD及LD开工偏低。而总PP开工率已上一个台阶，标品PP拉丝开工已恢复，PP注塑开工偏高，PP共聚开工区间盘整。 进出口方面，PP和PE进口窗口均已打开，进口窗口限制反弹空间。 ■策略 （1）单边：塑料观望，PP逢高做空套保。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化，人民币贬值风险。 目录 策略摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃日度表格.........................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构.........................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..........................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比......................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润...................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润....................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃库存...............................................................................................................................................................................12 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：% ..........................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：% ..........................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：% ...................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨................................