主要图表免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布。报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写，本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议，投资者需自行承担风险。未经本公司事先书面授权，不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节、修改、及用于其它用途。图5、硅铁06合约基差-40基差及价差硅铁2309基差-8167640硅铁6-9价差锰硅9-1价差-486884硅铁2306基差锰硅2306基差668680硅铁230915.9万0.1万锰硅2309图11、硅锰9-1价差图12、硅锰6-9价差图2、硅锰现货价格（元/吨）图8、硅锰09合约基差2.1万-0.1万锰硅23061.0万-0.1万图1、硅铁现货价格（元/吨）图7、硅锰06合约基差图6、硅铁09合约基差图3、硅铁现货利润（元/吨）图4、硅锰现货利润（元/吨）图9、硅铁9-1价差图10、硅铁6-9价差1102-216-219.7万利润持仓情况0.6万67006423.5内蒙锰硅利润57.1285-14.88968006717.5宁夏锰硅利润-179.871515.111锰硅2306结算价内蒙锰硅现价锰硅2309基差宁夏硅铁利润内蒙硅铁利润硅铁2306期现货市场-60-76-380硅铁2306结算价硅铁2309结算价锰硅2309结算价70607108021438锰硅6-9价差1984060硅铁9-1价差宁夏硅铁现价内蒙硅铁现价宁夏锰硅现价71007000690000数据环比6680铁合金数据日报2023/5/25品种日内观点硅铁硅锰产业链数据环比项目数据24日双硅均有不同程度下跌。就成本端来看待兰炭、硅石持稳，冶金焦第九轮下调50元/吨后暂持稳，宁夏电价下调0.005元/度后持稳，港口加蓬矿上调0.2元/吨度，澳矿、半碳酸报价下行，整体双硅成本线暂稳。供给端产量已经受到高库存压制开始减产，利润也持续走低，企业开工意愿不断下滑，4月上旬、中旬粗钢产量已经出现拐头，下旬粗钢产量跌幅扩大。粗钢迫于压力减产对硅锰冲击更大，总的来看供需双弱，夏季基本面预期逐渐走弱。硅锰收储在时间空间上有一些不确定性，短期硅铁没有明显利多因素，盘面受黑色情绪影响较大策略上，硅铁大方向逢高布局空单，考虑多硅锰空硅铁价差套利。300050007000900011000130001500017000190002020/1/12020/2/12020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/12022/12/12023/1/12023/2/12023/3/12023/4/12023/5/1宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁30005000700090001100013000150002020/1/12020/2/12020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/12022/12/12023/1/12023/2/12023/3/12023/4/12023/5/1宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰-2000020004000600080001000012000140002019/1/32020/1/32021/1/32022/1/32023/1/3宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润-1000-500050010001500内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润-200002000400060008000SF2006基差SF2006基差SF2106基差SF2206基差-1000010002000300040005/166/167/168/169/1610/1611/1612/161/162/163/164/165/16SM2006基差SM2106基差SM2206基差SM2306基差-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150020009/1610/1611/1612/161/162/163/164/165/16SF2006-SF2009SF2106-SF2109SF2206-SF2209SF2306-SF2309-1000-5000500100015009/1810/1811/1812/181/182/183/184/185/18SM2006-SM2009SM2106-SM2109SM2206-SM2209SM2306-SM2309-2000020004000600080009/1610/1611/1612/161/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/16SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差-1000-500050010001500200025003000350040009/1610/1611/1612/161/162/163/164/165/166/167/168/16SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差-400-300-200-10001002003004005001/172/173/174/175/176/177/178/179/17SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401