2023年3月及Q1经济数据点评：开局良好，可适度上调全年GDP增速预期

1 wind wind wind 2023-032023前2月2022-122022-112022-102022-092022-082022-072022-062022-052022-042022-03社零（当月同比）10.6%3.5%-1.8%-5.9%-0.5%2.5%5.4%2.7%3.1%-6.7%-11.1%-3.5% 社零：商品零售（当月同比）9.1%2.9%-0.1%-5.6%0.5%3.0%5.1%3.2%3.9%-5.0%-9.7%-2.1% 社零：餐饮（当月同比）26.3%9.2%-14.1%-8.4%-8.1%-1.7%8.4%-1.5%-4.0%-21.1%-22.7%-16.4%固投（累计同比）5.1%5.5%5.1%5.3%5.8%5.9%5.8%5.7%6.1%6.2%6.8%9.3% 制造业投资（累计同比）7.0%8.1%9.1%9.3%9.7%10.1%10.0%9.9%10.4%10.6%12.2%15.6% 基建投资（累计同比）10.8%12.2%11.5%11.7%11.4%11.2%10.4%9.6%9.3%8.2%8.3%10.5% 房地产开发投资（累计同比）-5.8%-5.7%-10.0%-9.8%-8.8%-8.0%-7.4%-6.4%-5.4%-4.0%-2.7%0.7%固投（当月同比）4.7%5.5%3.1%0.7%5.0%6.6%6.5%3.5%5.8%4.5%1.8%6.7% 制造业投资（当月同比）6.2%8.1%7.4%6.2%6.9%10.7%10.6%7.5%9.9%7.1%6.4%11.9% 基建投资（当月同比）9.9%12.2%10.4%13.9%12.8%16.3%15.4%11.5%12.0%7.9%4.3%11.8% 房地产开发投资（当月同比）-5.9%-5.7%-12.7%-19.9%-16.1%-12.1%-13.8%-12.1%-9.6%-7.7%-10.1%-2.4%出口金额（美元，当月同比）14.8%-6.8%-9.9%-8.7%-0.3%5.9%7.2%18.0%17.1%16.3%3.5%14.4%进口金额（美元，当月同比）-1.4%-10.2%-7.5%-10.6%-0.7%0.3%0.2%2.0%0.4%3.7%0.2%0.7%工业增加值（当月同比）3.9%2.4%1.3%2.2%5.0%6.3%4.2%3.8%3.9%0.7%-2.9%5.0%服务业生产指数（当月同比）9.2%5.5%-0.8%-1.9%0.1%1.3%1.8%0.6%1.3%-5.1%-6.1%-0.9%制造业PMI51.91月50.1，2月52.647.048.049.250.149.44950.249.647.449.5非制造业PMI58.21月54.4，2月56.341.646.748.750.652.653.854.747.841.948.4 建筑业PMI65.61月56.4，2月60.254.455.458.260.256.559.256.652.252.758.1 服务业PMI56.91月54.0，2月55.639.445.14748.951.952.854.347.14046.7 wind2021 wind=/ wind2021 wind wind 商品类别2023-032023-022022-122022-112022-102022-092022-082022-072022-062022-052022-042022-03限额以上企业商品零售总额8.50%1.50%-0.20%-5.70%0.00%6.60%9.10%7.50%8.80%-5.30%-13.30%-0.42%汽车类3.32%-2.65%1.38%-1.06%1.04%3.92%4.56%2.84%3.87%-4.82%-9.93%-2.30%石油及制品类1.35%1.46%-0.37%-0.20%0.14%1.42%2.44%2.12%1.89%1.17%0.65%1.42%服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类1.32%0.50%-1.16%-1.51%-0.70%-0.04%0.39%0.06%0.10%-1.47%-1.96%-1.08%金银珠宝类0.59%0.15%-0.34%-0.12%-0.05%0.04%0.15%0.38%0.13%-0.32%-0.48%-0.34%粮油、食品类0.51%1.11%1.11%0.40%0.91%0.98%0.90%0.67%0.91%1.27%1.03%1.27%中西药品类0.49%0.71%1.51%0.30%0.33%0.36%0.36%0.31%0.43%0.40%0.31%0.45%日用品类0.36%0.19%-0.45%-0.47%-0.10%0.25%0.18%0.03%0.21%-0.32%-0.47%-0.04%烟酒类0.27%0.24%-0.25%-0.06%-0.02%-0.34%0.24%0.22%0.14%0.10%-0.20%0.20%化妆品类0.26%0.09%-0.43%-0.17%-0.09%-0.08%-0.16%0.01%0.22%-0.29%-0.51%-0.18%通讯器材类0.07%-0.35%-0.16%-0.95%-0.44%0.23%-0.17%0.17%0.31%-0.26%-0.81%0.11%家具类0.03%0.04%-0.07%-0.05%-0.08%-0.09%-0.10%-0.08%-0.08%-0.13%-0.15%-0.09%文化办公用品类-0.05%-0.03%-0.01%-0.06%-0.05%0.26%0.19%0.30%0.28%-0.07%-0.11%0.24%建筑及装潢材料类-0.06%-0.01%-0.12%-0.13%-0.12%-0.11%-0.13%-0.11%-0.06%-0.10%-0.16%0.01%家用电器和音像器材类-0.08%-0.09%-0.74%-1.26%-0.80%-0.35%0.20%0.45%0.25%-0.64%-0.44%-0.26%饮料类-0.09%0.10%0.09%-0.11%0.07%0.10%0.12%0.06%0.04%0.14%0.10%0.20% wind wind wind2021 wind2021 wind wind2021 wind2021 wind2021 wind2021