1 指标2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E营业收入（百万元）1,1731,9953,3824,3525,695增速（%）120.44%70.00%69.53%28.69%30.85%归母净利润（百万元）2796059181,2281,662增速（%）227.01%117.09%51.67%33.75%35.38%每股收益（元）0.310.671.021.361.85市盈率（倍）131.7460.6940.0129.9122.10 iFinD iFinD -300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%(10)010203020182019202020212022营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速（右轴）归母净利增速（右轴）-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20182019202020212022销售毛利率销售净利率0500100015002000250030003500050100150200250Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23库存量(吨)（右轴）碳纤维大丝束国内价格(元/千克)碳纤维小丝束国内价格(元/千克)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%010002000300040005000600070008000产能（吨）（折月）产量（吨）开工率（%）风电叶片35%体育休闲27%碳碳复材15%建筑补强2%压力容器10%航空航天2%混配模成型4%其他5%0500010000150002000025000300000200040006000800010000120002019202020212022碳碳复材建筑补强压力容器航空航天混配模成型其他风电叶片（右轴）体育休闲（右轴） Wind iFinD 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0100002000030000400005000020082010201220142016201820202022进口碳纤维需求量（吨）国产碳纤维需求量（吨）国产化率（右轴）70009000110001300015000Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-232022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q42021Q32021Q22021Q1营业收入(百万元)543589403460469323241140营业成本(百万元)279285222248--13266销售费用率0.8%0.2%0.2%0.1%--0.3%0.2%管理费用率8.3%6.4%9.3%7.9%--11.6%17.3%财务费用率1.1%0.2%0.7%2.4%--1.7%1.0%研发费用率8.9%8.9%7.7%5.0%--3.1%6.0%资产减值损失(百万元)0.000.000.000.00--0.000.00利润总额(百万元)185223113140--8239所得税费用(百万元)3201122--10归母净利润（百万元）18120410211879798239扣非归母净利（百万元）16019296116797500EPS0.200.230.110.150.100.100.100.00毛利率48.5%51.7%44.8%46.0%--45.2%52.6%期间费用率19.1%15.7%17.9%15.4%--16.8%24.5%所得税率1.7%8.8%9.7%15.8%--1.0%0.0%净利润率33.4%34.6%25.3%25.6%16.8%24.4%33.8%28.0% iFinD 资产负债表利润表会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E货币资金148.22320.25807.011352.692029.403317.12营业收入532.311173.441994.813381.744352.055694.85应收票据及账款53.4718.88117.59206.61278.05377.11营业成本303.25685.101034.741778.442290.152967.50预付账款5.8622.0852.0884.31107.31124.66税金及附加9.1510.1410.4017.5922.2028.47其他应收款1.495.055.2811.1216.6915.91销售费用2.953.976.7611.5014.3618.22存货30.95153.55297.72441.93581.63804.88管理费用64.89118.27156.51258.70322.05432.81其他流动资产90.36172.911530.4450.7352.2256.95研发费用17.1859.12154.77263.78343.81449.89流动资产总计330.36692.722810.123729.744149.315590.64财务费用14.1826.5720.9267.0254.3323.86长期股权投资0.000.000.000.000.000.00资产减值损失-52.69 0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产553.642129.532688.103048.163600.433776.24信用减值损失0.630.05-0.02 0.000.000.00在建工程1123.06566.271357.921831.601305.281178.96其他经营损益-0.00 0.00-0.00 2.303.102.60无形资产130.44189.53184.87237.39356.58442.44投资收益-0.11 0.4620.545.004.605.70长期待摊费用0.0017.5337.9728.9912.5015.00公允价值变动损益0.000.007.423.503.002.89其他非流动资产14.45128.66168.39260.40280.70303.70资产处置收益0.180.050.000.000.000.00非流动资产合计1821.593031.534437.255406.545555.495716.34其他收益15.6125.4737.5425.0030.4034.20资产总计2151.953724.257247.379136.289704.8011306.98营业利润84.33296.29676.181020.511346.251819.49短期借款55.86575.77253.38741.650.000.00营业外收入1.940.700.720.500.300.20应付票据及账款314.02539.13881.361476.351849.682113.83营业外支出1.031.8416.0018.005.003.50其他流动负债167.91124.00160.75248.23288.66334.95其他非经营损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债合计537.791238.901295.492466.232138.342448.78利润总额85.23295.14660.901003.011341.551816.19长期借款469.191058.961006.491020.69798.63570.94所得税0.0016.4255.8285.26114.03154.38其他非流动负债188.37191.08328.30206.30220.00243.80净利润85.23278.72605.08917.751227.521661.81非流动负债合计657.561250.031334.801226.991018.63814.74少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00负债合计1195.352488.932630.293693.223156.973263.52归属母公司股东净利润85.23278.72605.08917.751227.521661.81股本800.00800.00900.00900.00900.00900.00EBITDA149.29411.63854.881712.762292.232932.19资本公积50.6950.692727.372727.372727.372727.37NOPLAT98.33304.91632.10993.081278.931684.05留存收益105.91384.63989.711815.692920.464416.09EPS(元)0.090.310.671.021.361.85归属母公司权益956.591235.314617.085443.066547.838043.46少数股东权益0.000.000.000.000.000.00主要财务比率股东权益合计956.591235.314617.085443.066547.838043.46会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E负债和股东权益合计2151.953724.257247.379136.289704.8011306.98成长能力营收增长率28.24% 120.44% 70.00% 69.53% 28.69% 30.85% 现金流量表营业利润增长率239.46% 251.36% 128.22% 50.92% 31.92% 35.15% 会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025EEBIT增长率121.08% 223.61% 111.93% 56.94% 30.45% 31.82% 税后经营利润85.23278.72605.08903.111197.051625.68EBITDA增长率49.41% 175.72% 107.68% 100.35% 33.83% 27.92% 折旧与摊销49.8889.92173.05642.72896.351092.15归母净利润增长率225.92% 227.01% 117.09% 51.67% 33.75% 35.38% 财务费用14.1826.5720.9267.0254.3323.86经营现金流增长率288.92% 28.92% 177.43% 141.83% 16.24% 16.77% 投资损失0.11-0.46 -20.54 -5.00 -4.60 -5.70 盈利能力营运资金变动32.69-96.27 60.91397.81172.54-33.16 毛利率43.03% 41.62% 48.13% 47.41% 47.38% 47.89% 其他经营现金流51.242.33-4.89 12.5030.3036.60净利率16.01% 23.75% 30.33% 27.14% 28.21% 29.18% 经营性现金净流量233.32300.81834.532018.172345.972739.42营业利润率15.84% 25.25% 33.90% 30.18% 30.93% 31.95% 资本支出851.281161.291099.111742.001011.301206.20ROE8.91% 22.56% 13.11% 16.86% 18.75% 20.66% 长期投资0.000.00-1490.00 0.000.000.00ROA3.96% 7.48% 8.35% 10.05% 12.65% 14.70% 其他投资现金流-65.14 -9.16 -112.32 -74.16 482.82172.23ROIC12.75% 20.58% 22.02% 22.70% 22.74% 28.19% 投资性现金净流量-916.42 -1170.44 -2701.44 -1816.16 -528.48 -1033.97 估值倍数短期借款-16.14 519.91-322.40 488.27-741.65 0.00P/E430.82131.7460.6940.0129.9122.10长期借款