聚烯烃日报：数据好转提振市场信心，聚烯烃偏强震荡

图表设置下载图片另存为PDF分享聚烯烃日报 | 2023-3-2数据好转提振市场信心，聚烯烃偏强震荡【期货市场】周三L2305开8322最高8400最低8313结算8354涨79，成交量减20141手，持仓增加24844手；PP2305开7870最高7920最低7847结算7886涨48，成交量缩减20940手，持仓减7400手，日盘期价震荡上行收阳。【现货市场】（1）周三PP华东现货市场拉丝主流价格在7730-7900元/吨，较昨日上涨50元/吨；美金市场收990美元/吨，较昨日持平。LLDPE现货市场价格走高，其中华北、华东地区价格上涨30-50元/吨不等。基差PP华东-160，L华北-118。（2）周三两油库存79万吨，累库5.5万吨。PE线性膜料排产比34.8%，PE管材料排产12.1%，低压中空10.3%，停车比例10.8%；PP拉丝排产比29.59%，低熔共聚9.87%，停车12.77%。（3）石化月初价格变动不多，成本支撑稳定，贸易商随行调涨价格，下游询盘增多，成交有所好转，重心窄幅提升。【综合分析】国内公布2月PMI数据向好提振股市期市普涨，聚烯烃跟涨为主，整体盘面震荡偏强，期现货基差走弱。现货成交略受影响。短期市场关注在两会政策端，期货盘面多数资金离场等待，在没有新的驱动力前盘面仍以震荡偏强为主，随着基差走弱可进行正套操作。【操作建议】价差：L-PP价差继续扩大。塑料作为多配品种资金关注度高于PP。单边：L05技术偏强，短期向上关注8500附近压力。PP05略弱，关注8000关口压力。作者：风云能化团联系方式： 手机号18691579830邮箱liuss@hrrdqh.com 聚烯烃日报 2023-3-2近一年不同工艺制PP生产利润（元/吨）-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002022-02-242022-05-112022-07-192022-09-262022-12-082023-02西北煤原油石脑油外采丙烯外采丙烷近一年不同原料生产PE利润（元/吨）-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002022-02-242022-05-122022-07-212022-09-292022-12-142023-0西北煤外采乙烯原油石脑油综合利润聚丙烯整体开工率(%)76788082848688909294969801-0202-0503-1104-1405-1906-2207-2608-2910-0911-1212-16201720182019202020212022202386.9886.98聚丙烯开工率_拉丝(%)202224262830323436384042444601-0202-0603-1304-1705-2306-2708-0109-0510-1711-2112-26201720182019202020212022202328.7328.73聚丙烯加权利润(元吨)-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50001-0302-0703-1404-1805-2406-2808-0209-0610-1811-2212-22017201820192020202120222023-642.531-642.531塑料开工率_LLDPE(%)2628303234363840424446485001-0202-0503-1104-1405-1906-2207-2608-2910-0911-1212-16201720182019202020212022202338.3338.33塑料开工率_整体(%)7476788082848688909294969810001-0202-0503-1104-1405-1906-2207-2608-2910-0911-1212-16201720182019202020212022202390.3990.39综合制PE利润(元吨)-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50001-0202-0603-1304-1705-2306-2708-0109-0510-1711-2112-262017201820192020202120222023-135.674-135.674 聚烯烃日报 2023-3-2聚乙烯LLDPE仓单数量(手)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,00001-0202-0603-1304-2205-2807-0208-0609-1010-2211-2612-3201720182019202020212022202313211321聚丙烯注册仓单量(手)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00001-0202-0603-1304-2005-2606-3008-0409-0810-2011-2412-2201720182019202020212022202334933493塑料05合约基差(元吨)-800-600-400-20002004006008001,00002-0103-0504-0605-0906-1007-1208-1309-1410-2311-2412-262017201820192020202120222023-69-69塑料05月交割收盘价(元吨)-800-600-400-20002004006008001,00002-0103-0504-0605-0906-1007-1208-1309-1410-2311-2412-262017201820192020202120222023-69-69塑料05月交割持仓量(手)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,00002-0103-0604-0805-1206-1407-1708-1909-2110-3112-032017201820192020202120222023404326404326聚丙烯05月交割持仓量(手)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,00002-0103-0604-0805-1206-1407-1708-1909-2110-3112-032017201820192020202120222023436868436868聚丙烯05月交割收盘价(元吨)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,00002-0103-0604-0805-1206-1407-1708-1909-2110-3112-032017201820192020202120222023436868436868聚丙烯05合约基差(元吨)-600-500-400-300-200-100010020030040050060070002-0103-0504-0605-0906-1007-1208-1309-1410-2311-2412-262017201820192020202120222023-162-162 聚烯烃日报 2023-3-2【免责声明】本分析报告由华融融达期货股份有限公司提供，仅作为所服务的特定企业与机构一般用途而准备，未经许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发布及分发本报告的全部或部分内容给其它任何人士。如引用发布，须注明出处:华融融达期货股份有限公司，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本报告引用的信息和数据均来自于公开资料及其它合法渠道，力求报告内容、引用资料和数据的客观公正。尽可能保证可靠、准确和完整，但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性，本报告所提供的信息仅供参考，不作为投资决策的依据，客户应自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果。两油石化库存(万吨)40506070809010011012013014015016017001-0202-0503-1104-1505-2306-2607-3009-0210-1311-1612-20201920202021202220237979塑料05-09合约价差(元吨)-250-200-150-100-5005010015020025030002-0102-1202-2303-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1220172018201920202021202220235757聚丙烯05-09合约价差(元吨)-10001002003004005006007008009001,0001,10002-0102-1202-2303-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-12201720182019202020212022202366PVC-L价差05合约(元吨)-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,00006-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-252013-20142014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-2023-1945-1945塑料聚丙烯05合约价差(元吨)-500-400-300-200-10001002003004005006007002021-08-162021-12-022022-03-212022-07-062022-10-212023-02-0塑料聚丙烯01合约价差(元吨)【聚丙烯_价差】PP-3MA价差05合约(元吨)-900-600-30003006009001,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,7003,00006-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-252016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-2023-19-19