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评估易受灾害影响的斐济的新损害评估技术(英)

公用事业2023-02-01亚开行望***
评估易受灾害影响的斐济的新损害评估技术(英)

ADB BRIEFSNO. 240FEBRUARY 2023ISBN 978-92-9270-023-2 (print)ISBN 978-92-9270-024-9 (electronic)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (electronic)Publication Stock No. BRF230028-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF230028-2Appraising New Damage Assessment Techniques in Disaster-Prone FijiADVANCES IN POST-DISASTER DAMAGE ASSESSMENTRecent technological advances in remote sensing have led to significant increases in temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions of these images. Improvements have also been made in data availability and accessibility, as well as advances in the processing methods required to effectively interpret these large amounts of data. These developments have led to an increase in the opportunities for the use of satellite imagery for more effective disaster risk management.One such application that has advanced because of these improvements is post-disaster damage assessment. Traditionally, in a post-disaster scenario, a team of experts is sent to the impact area to conduct a ground survey and assess damages (often connected to a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment report), which the Asian Development Bank (ADB) typically undertakes jointly with impacted country governments and other relevant agencies. While extremely useful, this process is time-consuming, costly, and problematic because often access to the affected area is difficult, dangerous, or restricted. Alternatively, governments, and especially public and private insurance companies, use risk models to quantify the damages. Risk models, however, can be inaccurate and are generally unable to account for compounding or cascading events, which are much more difficult to quantitatively model. Similarly, the standard approach to nowcast disaster impacts, which relies on risk models, does not typically account for the compounding impact of various hazard phenomena, such as wind and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones. The grant fund for the study was received from the Japan Fund for Prosperous and Resilient Asia and the Pacific financed by the Government of Japan through the Asian Development Bank.Ilan NoyProfessor School of Economics and FinanceVictoria University of WellingtonWellington, New ZealandHomer PagkalinawanAssociate Economics OfficerEconomic Research and Regional Cooperation DepartmentAsian Development BankKEY POINTS• Recent advances in technology make satellite imagery an important source of information for effective disaster risk management and post-disaster damage assessment. The impact of tropical cyclones on agriculture in Fiji is estimated by measuring the Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from satellite images, before and after the event, and linked with available household surveys and agricultural census data to assess economic impact.• The analysis paves a possible approach for estimating the predicted impact of a tropical cyclone on the agriculture sector of a cyclone-prone region, based only on the cyclone’s known trajectory, and even before the availability of post-event satellite imagery. The method can become a component in a “nowcasting tool” to assess the immediate impact of a disaster. The impact and needs assessment can be refined as images and survey information become accessible over time.• More work is needed to improve the preliminary estimates and approach primarily by accessing granular and detailed datasets, including on agriculture crops and household incomes.Madhavi PunditSenior EconomistEconomic Research and Regional Cooperation DepartmentAsian Development BankPriscille VillanuevaEconomics OfficerEconomic Research and Regional Cooperation DepartmentAsian Development Bank ADB BRIEFS NO. 2402Satellite imagery may provide an easily available and accurate data source to gauge a disaster’s specific impacts and can account for a disaster’s compounding effects. While it can serve as a strong complement, if accurate enough, satellite imagery may potentially replace some components of the ground surveys. An approach that has been calibrated with remote-sensing imagery can also be used as a component in a nowcasting tool to assess the impact of a specific disaster, for example, a tropical cyclone, based only on its known trajectory, and even before post-event satellite imagery is available. We discuss such an approach in this brief.ASSESSING IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON FIJI’S AGRICULTUREA knowledge and technical assistance is currently underway to investigate the feasibility of using innovative data, such as satellite imagery for nowcasting and post-disaster damage assessment.1 Noy et al. (2022) examine the possibility of combining remote- sensing data with socioeconomic sources of information (household surveys and the census) to nowcast the damage from tropical cyclones on agriculture. In doing so, it goes beyond the now-routine procedure of linking hazard indicators (such as strong winds) with remote-sensing data, to the next step of assessing economic impacts. In this study, data on ve