商贸零售行业深度报告：2023消费复苏投资宝典，大消费业绩弹性~估值水位全景图，数解消费各领域投资机会

Equity Research·Industry Research·Retail Retail Industry Research 1 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Investment guidance for 2023 consumption recovery: earnings elasticity and valuation levels of consumption-related companies Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ We favor the recovery of consumption-related industry in 2023, as the optimization of pandemic control measures and implementation of enlarging domestic demand are likely to boost both the supply and demand of the consumption industry. Supply side: consumption-related companies should get sufficient support from governments including consumption vouches, tax preference, and less stringent policies. Demand side: optimized pandemic control measures should further promote the demand and willingness to consume. We expect to see prosperity of both supply and demand in 2023. ◼ We aim to build an investment framework to determine the valuation levels, earnings elasticity, and growth potential of different sectors in the consumption industry, combined with feedbacks from stock price movements. ◼ We employ six main logics to search for investable sectors in the consumption-related industry: ①Stocks that experienced large price retreat during the pandemic may show insufficient pricing of consumption recovery. ②Companies that had significant loss during the pandemic should have high earnings elasticity in the recovery. ③Firms with low absolute valuation. ④Firms with low relative valuation compared with its past band should have a tendency to revert to normal valuation level in the recovery. ⑤Firms in sustainable high-growth and high-prosperity sectors are likely to continue the long-term growth pattern. ⑥Companies with meaningful barriers and excellent business models enjoy explicit long-term investment values. ◼ We use five aspects to determine the position of different sectors in the consumption-related industry: ①Price change in the past three years vs. estimated valuation for 2023: we look for sectors with large price retreat and low valuation, including home appliances, gold jewelry, furniture, and textile & clothing. ②Price change vs. relative valuation levels: we look for sectors that are not fully priced with recovery expectations, including home appliances and white wines. ③Price change vs. profit change in 2019-22: we look for sectors with significant decline in both earnings and stock price, including aviation & airports, tourist attractions, and education. ④Profit change in 2019-22 vs. profit change in 2022-23: we look for sectors with significant decline in earnings and high earnings elasticity in the recovery, including aviation & airports, hotels, and restaurants. ⑤Profit change in 2022-23 vs. profit change in 2019-23: we look for sectors with high earnings elasticity in the recovery as well as long-term high prosperity, including aesthetics, duty free, hotels, and restaurants. ◼ We recommend sectors and companies including: Duty free: high earnings elasticity in the recovery and long-term growth. We recommend CTG duty-free, Wangfujing Group, Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group. Aesthetics: low relative valuation along with long-term growth. We recommend Imeik Technology Development and Lancy. Aviation & airports: high earnings elasticity in the recovery and significant stock price retreat during the pandemic. We recommend Shanghai International Airport. Hotels and restaurants: high earnings elasticity in the recovery and long-term growth. We recommend BTG Hotels. Education: high earnings elasticity in the recovery and significant stock price retreat during the pandemic. We recommend China Education Group and Offcn Education Technology. Gold jewelry: significant stock price retreat during the pandemic and low valuation provides downside protection. We recommend Dr Corporation. Bulk supply chain industry B2B: low valuation and long-term growth. We recommend Xiamen Xiangyu. ◼ Risks：Statistical errors, pandemic impacts in the second wave, lower-than-expected consumption recovery. [Table_PicQuote] Industry performance [Table_Report] Related reports 《出行复苏数据跟踪周报（2023年第2周）：短途出行持续反弹，长途数据底部已现》 2023-01-11 《免税数据跟踪周报（2023年第2周）：元旦过后赴岛游客继续回升，线上折扣相对企稳》 2023-01-09 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Jincao Wu (吴劲草) and Jing Yang (阳靖). [Table_Author] 3 February 2023 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -26%-23%-20%-17%-14%-11%-8%-5%-2%1%2022/01/132022/05/142022/09/122023/01/11RetailHSI 300 证券研究报告·行业深度报告·商贸零售 商贸零售行业深度报告 2 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 2023消费复苏投资宝典：大消费业绩弹性--估值水位全景图，数解消费各领域投资机会 增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 我们看好2023年消费行业的复苏，随防疫政策放松、扩大内需战略推进，2023年消费行业有望供需两