受需求预期增加提振，螺纹钢维持震荡偏强「2023.01.20」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638螺纹钢市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价延续震荡偏强格局。随着春节假期临近，终端需求继续萎缩，库存量再度提升，但在稳增长，扩大内需支撑下，市场对于中长期需求保持良好预期，弱现实强预期继续支撑钢价上行。后市展望：供应端，螺纹钢周度产量继续回落，周度产能利用率降至50%附近，节后螺纹钢产量或暂时维持萎缩状态；需求端，本期社会库存继续增加，且增幅扩大，由于进入春节假期终端需求进一步下滑，但螺纹钢累库明显低于往年同期。最后，国内宏观利好消息仍持续作用，支撑钢价偏强运行。操作上建议，RB2305合约维持震荡偏多交易，注意风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡走高本周，RB2305合约震荡走高。本周，RB2305合约走势弱于RB2310合约，20日价差为49元/吨，周环比-3元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3000320034003600380040004200440046004800350050350010035001503500200350025035002022-06-012022-06-102022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-172022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-17RB2305收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e-400-300-200-10001002003004005006002021-11-012021-11-122021-11-252021-12-082021-12-212022-01-042022-01-172022-01-282022-02-172022-03-022022-03-152022-03-282022-04-122022-04-252022-05-112022-05-242022-06-072022-06-202022-07-012022-07-142022-07-272022-08-092022-08-222022-09-022022-09-162022-09-292022-10-192022-11-012022-11-142022-11-252022-12-082022-12-212023-01-042023-01-17RB2305-RB2310合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单增加，前20名持仓净空增加1月20日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为48675吨，周环比+2403吨。1月20日，螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空14494张，较上一周增加57092张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002021-01-042021-01-282021-03-022021-03-262021-04-222021-05-212021-06-172021-07-132021-08-062021-09-012021-09-292021-11-012021-11-252021-12-212022-01-172022-02-172022-03-152022-04-122022-05-112022-06-072022-07-012022-07-272022-08-222022-09-162022-10-192022-11-142022-12-082023-01-04螺纹钢仓单日报-200000-150000-100000-5000005000010000015000010000001200000140000016000001800000200000022000002021-12-092021-12-272022-01-132022-02-072022-02-232022-03-112022-03-292022-04-182022-05-092022-05-252022-06-132022-06-292022-07-152022-08-022022-08-182022-09-052022-09-222022-10-172022-11-022022-11-182022-12-062022-12-222023-01-10螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调，基差走弱1月20日，上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400（理计）现货报价为4140元/吨，周环比+0元/吨；全国均价为4259元/吨，周环比+5元/吨。本周，螺纹钢现货价格弱于期货，20日期现基差为-39元/吨，周环比-6元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-132022-01-242022-02-072022-02-162022-02-252022-03-082022-03-172022-03-282022-04-072022-04-182022-04-262022-05-092022-05-182022-05-272022-06-082022-06-172022-06-282022-07-072022-07-182022-07-272022-08-052022-08-162022-08-252022-09-052022-09-152022-09-262022-10-102022-10-192022-10-282022-11-082022-11-172022-11-282022-12-072022-12-162022-12-272023-01-062023-01-17全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120033003800430048005300580063002021-06-012021-06-242021-07-162021-08-092021-08-312021-09-242021-10-252021-11-162021-12-082021-12-302022-01-242022-02-222022-03-162022-04-112022-05-062022-05-302022-06-222022-07-142022-08-052022-08-292022-09-212022-10-202022-11-112022-12-052022-12-272023-01-19螺纹钢5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平1月20日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报914元/干吨，周环比+4元/干吨。1月20日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2910元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-23天津港一级冶金焦65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-042021-01-292021-03-042021-03-312021-04-282021-05-282021-06-252021-07-222021-08-182021-09-142021-10-202021-11-162021-12-132022-01-102022-02-112022-03-102022-04-082022-05-102022-06-072022-07-042022-07-292022-08-252022-09-222022-10-262022-11-222022-12-192023-01-16青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量减少，港口库存下滑据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2193.8万吨，环比减少73.6万吨。1月19日Mysteel统计全国45个港口铁矿石库存为13201.72，环比降157.21；日均疏港量324.56降2.92。分量方面，澳矿6094.43降82，巴西矿4750.21降12.47；贸易矿7836.90降115.08。（单位：万吨）图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-01-252019-03-292019-05-242019-07-192019-09-132019-11-152020-01-102020-03-132020-05-082020-07-032020-08-282020-10-232020-12-182021-02-192021-04-162021-06-112021-08-062021-10-012021-11-262022-01-212022-03-182022-05-132022-07-082022-09-022022-10-282022-12-23铁矿石港口库存与矿价库存量（左）澳洲麦克粉61%（右）单位：万吨单位：元-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-12