国内射频同轴连接器领先者，技术领先+客户资源+产能扩张促进公司发展

Avic Forstar S&T Co., Ltd.（835640） Equity Research·Company Research·Communication Device 1 / 9 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] As a leading domestic company in RF coaxial connector, Avic Forstar grows with advanced technology, customer resources, and capacity expansion Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 603 779 943 1,217 Growth (YoY %) 11% 29% 21% 29% Net profit (RMB mn) 102 149 186 220 Growth (YoY %) 49% 46% 25% 18% EPS (RMB) 0.54 0.79 0.99 1.17 P/E (X) 29.92 20.51 16.38 13.87 Key words: # Cheaper than comparable companies Investment Thesis ◼ Avic Forstar pays great attention to R&D investment as a technologically advanced 'little giant' enterprise. 1) Financials: with a GPM of 40.14%, Forstar's revenue for the first quarters in 2022 reached RMB630mn, and ~90% of the total revenue came from RF coaxial connectors and cable components business. Forstar maintains a healthy capital structure, but with increased A/R, its OCF deteriorated gradually (net outflow of RMB25.01mn for OCF within the first quarters in 2022). 2) R&D: Forstar increased R&D expense to RMB48.97mn in 2021 (+17.1% yoy) and the number of patents it held reached 36/70/101 in 2019-2021. ◼ Industry development: broad market for RF connectors with fierce competition among domestic manufacturers. 1) Status quo: with relatively late development, Chinese domestic RF connectors market enjoys a higher growth rate than global market. Downstream fields mainly include automotives and communication. 2) Market size: with bright prospects of RF connectors, we expect its market size to grow to RMB17.2bn, as demand of communication and defense increases. 3) Competitive landscape: foreign RF manufacturers are highly competitive with CR3 revenue accounting for 50% of the market share. Amid fierce domestic competition, Forstar tried to maintain its GPM at a relatively high level in 2021. ◼ Main thesis: advanced technology and customer resources drive the rapid growth of Forstar. 1) Advance technology: Forstar makes great efforts to develop core technologies with independent intellectual property rights, and holds multiple advanced technologies, with some already reaching the international standards. Among domestic RF connector manufacturers, Forstar owns the highest number of IEC international standards, holding 11/10/20/2 of IEC international / national / national military / communication industry standard. 2) Customer resources: Forstar enjoys rich customer resources, including Huawei, RFS, and other world-renowned communication equipment manufacturers as well as subsidiaries of domestic military groups such as CASC and CETC. Sales from major customers reached 75.03%/78.38%/73.06% of total revenue in 2019-2021. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We forecast Forstar’s revenue of RMB779/943/1217mn in 2022-2024, indicating yoy growth of 29.1%/21%/29.1% and GPM of 41.6%/39%/38.7%. We initiate with a “Buy” rating. ◼ Risks: shifts of downstream demand, large amount of A/R, fluctuation of OCF, technology upgrades. [Table_PicQuote] Price Performance [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 16.30 52-week Range (RMB) 12.83/25.77 P/B (X) 4.23 Market Cap (RMB mn) 3,059.97 Basic Data data BVPS (RMB) 3.86 Liabilities/assets (%) 47.22 Total Issued Shares (mn) 187.73 Shares outstanding (mn) 176.99 [Table_Report] Related reports Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Bo Liu (刘博) and Yahui Tang (唐亚辉). [Table_Author] 6 January 2023 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2021/11/182022/03/192022/07/182022/11/16Avic Forstar S&T 富士达（835640） 证券研究报告·公司深度研究·通信设备 2 / 9 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 国内射频同轴连接器领先者，技术领先+客户资源+产能扩张促进公司发展 买入（首次） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 603 779 943 1,217 同比 11% 29% 21% 29% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 102 149 186 220 同比 49% 46% 25% 18% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 0.54 0.79 0.99 1.17 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 29.92 20.51 16.38 13.87 [Table_Tag] 关键词：#比同类公司便宜 投资要点 ◼ 公司简介：专精特新“小巨人”企业，注重研发投入。1）业绩：公司业绩情况良好，2022年前三季度营收6.3亿元，毛利率40.14%，射频同轴连接器、电缆组件业务收入占比近九成；公司资本结构良好，应收账款规模增加，经营性现金流水平恶化，2022年前三季度经营活动现金流量净额-2501万元。2）研发投入：公司研发费用增加，2021年达4897万元，同比增长17.1%，2019—2021年拥有的专利数分别为36、70、101，研发人员占员工总量比增加。 ◼ 行业发展：射频连接器市场前景良好，国内竞争激烈。1）现状：国内射频器发展较晚，国内连接器市场规模增速超过全球连接器市场规模增速，汽车、通讯领域主要的下游应用领域。2）空间：射频连接器市场前景良好，预计2026年中国射频连接器行业增长到172亿元，通信和防务领域需求增加。3）格局：国外射频器厂商竞争力强，前三名厂商销售占比达五成，国内相关领域公司竞争激烈，公司2021年毛利率水平居于高位。 ◼ 核心逻辑：技术领先+客户资源，促进公司增长。1）技术领先：公司大力发展具有自主知识产权的核心技术，掌握多项技术，部分技术已经达到国际先进水平，2021年拥有11项IEC国际标准，10项国家标准、20项国家军用标准、2项通信行业标准，申请并获得授权专利101项，是国内射频连接器行业拥有IEC国际标准最多的公司。2）客户资源：公司客户资源丰富，主要客户包括华为、RFS等全球知名通信设备厂商以及中国航天科技集团、中国电子科技集团等国内军工集团下属企业等，2019年—2021年，主要客户年度销售占比合计分别为75.03%、78.38%、73.06%。 ◼ 盈