MigrationandDevelopmentBrief37November2022RemittancesBraveGlobalHeadwindsSpecial Focus:ClimateMigrationMigration and Remittances TeamSocial Protection and JobsWorld BankWORLDBANKGROUPKNOMAD Contents1 Trends in Remittance Flows.1.1 Following a Surge in 2021, Remittance Flows Continued to Grow in 2022.81.2 Reasons for Sustained Growth of Remittances in 2022,101.3 Remittances Outlook for 2023.171.4 Remittance Costs...2. Migration Trends.....202.1 Developments in Migration....2.2 Refugee Movements ...212.3 Developments in Migration Policy.,233. Special Focus: Climate Migration.....253.1 Climate Impacts on Mobility.....253.2 Migration Drivers and Climate Risks...263.3 Policy Recommendations ,..27Appendix A. Regional Trends in Migration and Remittance Flow.30A.1 East Asia and Pacific ..30A.2 Europe and Central Asia..34A.3 Latin America and the Caribbean.A.4 Middle East and North Africa ..45A.5 South Asia..A.6 Sub-Saharan Africa ....55ReferencesEndnotes..70List of FiguresFigure 1.1a Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Flows, and Official Development AssistanceFlows to Low- and Middle-lncome Countries, 19902023f.Figure 1.1b Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Flows, and Official Development AssistanceFlows to Low- and MidleIncome Countries, Excluding China, 19902023f....Figure 1.2 Top Recipients of Remittances among Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2022e.......10Figure B1.1.1 After Surging to Record Highs, Commodity Prices Have Eased.11Figure B1.2 Inflation Ramps Up Across High-lncome Countries and EMDEs...12Figure B1.1.3 US and Euro Area Wages Compressed by Inflation .....13Figure 1.3 Remittance Flows by LMIC Region, 2021-2023f....2 Listof TablesTable 1.1 Estimates and Projections of Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Regions, 201523f..Box B.1.1.2 Remittance Flows to FCS Countries .....16List of BoxesBox 1.1 Global Economic Developments and Factors Affecting Remittances in 2022.....11Box 1.2 Remittance Flows to Countries in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations Bounce Back in 2022 16Box 3.1 Country Climate Diagnostic Reports and Migration ........28Box A.1 India's Remittance Receipts are on Track to Reach S100 Billion in 2022 ........514 SummaryThis Migration and Development Brief (number 37 in the series) describes key developments inprevious brief, published in May 2022. The effects on migration and remittances of the Russia-Ukrainewar, the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and other changes in the global economic environment areexamined.Remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) increased by an estimated 5 percent in 2022,to $626 billon. However, downside risks remain. Migration flows are rebounding from the pandemic-induced decline of 202021. Retugee tlows have also increased, especially due to the Russia-Ukrainewar. In a special feature, the Brief notes that climate change will increase migration, mostly withincountries. The poorest are likely to be most affected. National and regional development strategiesneed to be viewed through a climate migration lens. Considering the global nature and expectedtrajectory of migration, the case for creating a global concessional financing facility for migrationremains strongRemittances. The growth of global remittance flows is expected to be 4.9 percent in 2022. Remittanceflows to developing regions were shaped by several factors in 2022. Besides the determination ofmigrants to help their families back home, a gradual reopening of various sectors in host countries'economies expanded many migrants' income and employment situation. On the other hand, risingprices adversely affected migrants' real incomes and their remittances. In Russia, rising oil prices andcontinued demand for migrant workers increased the flow of remittances to Central Asian countries.The appreciation of the ruble against the US dollar translated into higher value, in US dollar terms, ofoutward remittances from Russia to Central Asia. In Europe, a weaker euro had the opposite effect,reducing the US dollar valuation of remittance flows to North Africa and elsewhere. Remittancesreceived by migrants in transit contributed to strong flows in Mexico and Central America. Finally, inmany countries that experienced scarcity of foreign exchange and multiple exchange rates, officiallyrecorded remittance flows declined as flows shifted to alternative channels offering better exchangerates. Growth in remittances is expected to moderate to 2 percent in 2023, as GDP growth in highincome countries continues to slow, Downside risks remain substantial, including a further deteriorationdownturn in major high-income countries.Remittance costs (UN Sustainable Development Goal indicator 10.c.1). According to the World Bank'sRemittance Prices Worldwide Database, the global average cost of sending $200 to LMICs was 6 percentin the second quarter of 2022, not very different from a year ago, and twice as high as the SDG target.Among developing country regions, the cost was lowest