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新能源行业需求强劲,并购海光电子强强联合

可立克,0027822022-12-01陈睿彬东吴证券甜***
新能源行业需求强劲,并购海光电子强强联合

CLICK (002782.SZ) Equity Research·Company Research·Electronic 1 / 27 东吴证券(香港) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ke[Table_Main] New energy industry is in high demand, and Click builds strong alliances by M&A Highlight Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 1,649 3,194 5,488 6,813 Growth (YoY %) 29% 94% 72% 24% Non-GAAP net profit (RMB mn) 26 152 397 560 Growth (YoY %) -87% 478% 161% 41% Diluted EPS (RMB, Non-GAAP) 0.06 0.32 0.83 1.18 P/E (X, Non-GAAP) 292.72 50.41 19.30 13.65 Investment Thesis ◼ Click is mainly engaged in magnetic components and switching power supplies, and expands the business of new energy magnetic components: The strong demand in the new energy market has driven the rapid growth of the company's revenue. In 2021 and 22Q1-3, Click achieves revenue of RMB 1.65 bn (+29% YoY) and RMB1.98 bn (+69% YoY). In 22Q2, the decline in the price of raw materials such as copper has led to cost improvement, while economies of scale and automation improvement drove the increase in gross profit margins. ◼ Click is expected to achieve continuous growth by focusing on the development of magnetic components in the new energy field: According to our calculations, the market size of magnetic components in the fields of automotive electronics, photovoltaic energy storage, and charging piles is expected to reach RMB40/10/6 bn by 2025, corresponding to CAGR of 2021-2025 is 30/22/19%. 1) Click's R&D projects focus on magnetic components in the new energy field, and the cooperation with customers is progressing smoothly. 2) Click sets up a production base close to the location of major customers, expanding the production capacity of magnetic components in the new energy field. 3) Customers in the new energy field expanded smoothly. ◼ Click builds strong alliances by M&A Highlight, realizing product structure and customer synergy. In 22Q3, Click held a 64.25% stake in the Highlight, a domestic magnetic component manufacturer, and gained control. In the future, the company is expected to achieve multi-faceted synergy with Highlight and further consolidate its leading position in domestic magnetic components. 1) Product structure synergy: Highlight's downstream involves new energy, high-end industry, and communications. After the completion of the merger, Click will consolidate its strong position in the field of new energy and further expand in the field of communications. 2) Customer collaboration: The company has significant advantages in overseas markets and customer resources, and the export sales ratio exceeds 50%. 3) Financing improvement: Highlight has a long-term shortage of production capacity due to limited investment and financing capabilities of its shareholders. After Click's acquisition of Highlight, it is expected to improve its financing capabilities. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We predict that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB0.15/0.4/0.56 bn, corresponding to PE of 50.4/19.3/13.7 X. We initiate with a "Buy" rating. ◼ Risks: Downstream market demand is less than expected; industry competition has intensified; raw material price rose; investment profit and loss fluctuation risk. [Table_PicQuote] Price Movement [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 16.13 52-week Range (RMB) 7.98/25.30 P/B (X) 5.00 Market Cap (RMB mn) 7,612.92 Basic Data data BVPS(RMB, LF) 3.22 Liabilities/assets (%) 51.66 Total Issued Shares (mn) 476.72 Shares outstanding (mn) 471.97 [Table_Report] Related reports Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Tianyi Ma(马天翼) and Quanxi Tang(唐权喜). [Table_Author] 1 December 2022 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -45%-34%-23%-12%-1%10%21%32%43%54%2021/11/012022/03/022022/07/012022/10/30CLICKCSI 300 可立克(002782) 证券研究报告·公司深度研究·电子 2 / 27 东吴证券(香港) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 新能源行业需求强劲,并购海光电子强强联合 买入(首次) 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入(百万元) 1,649 3,194 5,488 6,813 同比 29% 94% 72% 24% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) 26 152 397 560 同比 -87% 478% 161% 41% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄(元/股) 0.06 0.32 0.83 1.18 P/E(现价&最新股本摊薄) 292.72 50.41 19.30 13.65 投资要点 ◼ 深耕磁性元件多年,新能源市场拉动营收快速增长。公司主营磁性元件、开关电源两大业务,大力拓展新能源磁性元件市场,汽车电子、光伏、充电桩等下游新能源市场需求旺盛,驱动公司营收快速增长,21全年、22Q1-3实现营收16.5亿元、19.8亿元,同增29%、69%。盈利能力方面,22Q2铜等原材料价格下降带来成本端改善,叠加规模效应和自动化改进驱动毛利率提升,公司盈利能力有望稳步回升。 ◼ 聚焦新能源领域磁性元件,技术研发、产能扩张、客户拓展并行发力。据我们测算,汽车电子、光伏储能、充电桩领域磁性元件市场规模至2025年将分别有望达到400、100、60亿元,21-25年市场规模CAGR为30%、22%、19%。公司发力新能源领域磁性元件,有望带动业绩持续增长。1)技术研发:公司研发项目聚焦新能源领域磁性元件,与客户合作研发进展顺利。2)产能扩张:贴近大客户所在地设立生产基地,积极募资扩充新能源领域磁性元件产能。3)客户拓展:新能源领域客户拓展顺利,成功积累了大众、比亚迪、蔚小理等新能源汽车领域,阳光、锦浪、上能电器等光伏领域,盛弘、英飞源等充电桩领域的头部客户资源。 ◼ 与海光电子强强联合,产品结构&客户协同效应凸显。22Q3公司实现直接持有国内磁性元件厂商海光电子64.25%股权,并取得海光电子控制权,未来公司有望与海光电子实现多方面协同,进一步巩固磁性元件国内龙头地位。1)产品结构