OECD EconomicOutlookNovember2022》OECDPRELIMINARYVERSION OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK112NOVEMBER2022PRELIMINARYVERSION》OECDBETTER POLICIES FOR BETTER LIVES This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory to the delimitation ofintermational frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of internationallaw.Note by the Republic of TurkiyeThe information in this document with reference to *Cyprus* relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the lsland. Turkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, TGrkiyeshall preserve its position concening the 'Cyprus issue .Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionOECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2: Preliminary veraion, No. 112, OECD Publishing, Paris,Please cite this publication as:https://doi.org/10.1787/6da2159-e0ISBN 97B-92-64-90931-1 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-69005-9 (HTML)ISBN 978-92-64-96461-7 (pdl)ISBN 978-92-64-39703-3 (epab)OECD Economic OutiookISSN 1609-7408 (online)ISSN 0474-5574 (print)Phete eredits: Cover Karabin/Shutterstock.comuqrepus6juoo/6uqsiknd/inoqe,6jopoeo'mw:je eug uo punoj eq Aeua suogeogqnd c epue6yuoo@OECD 2022Thueotiswerk,wheherdgiorprirtisoaodye TersandCandifionstobefeundats:wearastdssndic 13Table of contentsAcknowledgements7Editorial ConfrontingtheCrisis61Generalassessmentofthemacroeconomicsituation13Introduction13Growth is slowing and financial conditions have tightened15Global growth is projected to weaken further with inflation slowing gradually29Key risks and vulnerabilitiesPolicy requirements47Bibliography64Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections672Developments in individual OECD and selectednon-member economies69Argentina70AustraliaAustria76Belgium79Brazil82Bulgaria86Canada89Chile66China96Colombia100Costa Rica103Croatia106Czech Republic109Denmark112Estonia115118Finland122France125Germany129Greece133Hungary136Iceland139India142Indonesia146Ireland150OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2022 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2022 4 |Israel153Italy156Japan160Korea164Latvia167Lithuania170Luxembourg173Mexico176Netherlands179New Zealand1826185Peru188Poland1913019412197Slovak Republic2005203South Africa206Spain2094212Switzerland215Turkiye218United Kingdom221United States225FIGURESFigure 1.2. Commodity prices have diverged recently18Figure 1.4. Contributions of supply- and demand-driven inflation to headline inflation in selected OECD8222244520境内乘用车生产企业Figure 1.6. Infation has become increasingly broad-based境内乘用车生产企业Figure 1.8. Labour markets are tightFigure 1.9. Real wages are declining in most economies境内乘用车生产企业16Figure 1.13. Financial market volatity has increasedFigure 1.14. Real long-term interest rates have risen sharply in many countriesFigure 1.15. Financial market conditions have tightened significantlyFigure 1.16. Corporate bond yields have risen sharply2930境内乘用车生产企业358境内乘用车生产企业Figure 1.20. Gas is an important energy source for electricity generation in many European countries36 Figure 1.21. Prolonged gas shortages and greater uncertainty would hit growth and raise inflation in 2023 and202437Figure 1.22. Debt service obligations could surge39Figure 1.23. Variable-rate mortgages can exacerbate financial risks39Figure 1.24. Amidst high and volatile sovereign credit risk, capital outlows from emerging-market economieshave risen41境内乘用车生产企业 15Figure 1.25. Indebtedness is high in many emerging-market economies41Figure 1.26. The appreciation of the US dollar could exacerbate financial vulnerabilities in emerging-marketeconomies43Figure 1.27, The structure of many economies has changed considerably since the late 1990s4445Figure 1.29. Reduced uncertainty and lower commodity prices would strengthen growth and ease infiation47 Figure 1.30. Monetary policy tightening has been fast and highly synchronised485250Figure 1.32. Projections of central bank balance sheet reduction54 Figure 1.34. Fiscal consolidation is projected to be moderate and uneven across countries55Figure 1.35. Public debt has increased and the cost of new debt is rising56to help reduce inflation57Figure 1.37. Public debt has risen less in commodity-exporting emerging-market economies58Figure 1.39. Some structural policies have larger effects on disposable incomes than GDPFigure 1.38. The stock of trade-restricting measures has continued to growFigure 1.40. Many countries have considerable scope to improve employment rates for womer61TABLESTable 1.1 Glo