月酝知风之银行业：季报延续分化格局，继续关注优质区域行

月酝知风之银行业季报延续分化格局，继续关注优质区域行平安证券研究所银行&金融科技研究团队2022年11月2日请务必阅读正文后免责条款证券研究报告行业评级：银行强于大市（维持） 2核心摘要行业核心观点：估值具备安全边际，静待拐点信号。今年以来在疫情和经济下行压力加大影响下行业经营面临挑战增多，市场对行业资产质量悲观预期趋于充分，目前板块PB静态估值水平仅0.49x，仍处于历史绝对低位，安全边际凸显。展望4季度，我们认为影响银行板块配置机会的核心因素仍然是宏观经济的改善程度，拐点信号仍有待观察。在行业分化加剧背景下，部分区域性银行经营仍然保持强势，我们建议继续关注个体差异化行情。个股推荐：1）基本面边际改善明显、成长性优于同业的区域性银行（江苏、成都、苏州）；2）资产质量优异、经营特色鲜明的优质区域性银行（宁波、常熟）。行业热点跟踪：营收延续下行，个体分化持续。42家上市银行三季报披露完毕，2022年前三季度上市银行实现净利润同比增长8.0%，增速较上半年提升0.5pct。个股来看分化加剧，部分银行盈利依然保持强劲增长，大中型银行中平安（YoY+25.8%）、邮储（YoY+14.5%）、招行（YoY+14.2%）增速较快，城商行中增速较快的有杭州（YoY+31.8%）、成都（YoY+31.6%）、江苏（YoY+31.3%）。从收入端分解来看，22年前三季度营收增速较上半年收窄了2.1个百分点至2.8%，净利息收入（YoY+4.2%）和中收（YoY-0.7%）的增速均继续放缓，但考虑到3季度银行存款成本改善的效应逐步显现，利息收入降幅明显收窄。其他非息收入方面，考虑到去年同期债券交易收入基数的抬升以及3季度以来汇率波动的加大，前三季度其他非息收入同比增速（YoY-2.8%）由正转负，进一步加大了3季度整体营收的压力。市场走势回顾：10月银行板块跌幅9.46%，跑输沪深300指数1.68个百分点，按中信一级行业排名居于30个板块第25位。个股方面，10月银行股普遍下跌，其中：苏州涨幅居前，单月上涨3.0%，宁波、招行、成都跌幅居前，单月分别下跌24.7%、20.3%、16.7%。宏观与流动性跟踪：1）10月制造业PMI为49.2%，较上月下降0.9个百分点，其中大/中/小企业PMI分别为50.1%/48.9%/48.2%，环比上月下降1.0pct/0.8pct/0.1pct。9月CPI同比上涨2.8%，较上月上行0.3个百分点，但低于市场一致预期的3.0%。PPI同比上涨0.9%，较上月下滑1.4个百分点，自历史高位已连续11个月回落。2）10月份1年期MLF利率持平为2.75%，LPR1年期/5年期均与上月持平为3.65%/4.30%。10月市场利率下降，国债收益率整体下降，1年期/10年期国债收益率分别较上月下降12.30bp/11.68bp至1.73%/2.64%。3）9月新增人民币贷款同比大幅多增。9月新增人民币贷款2.47万亿，同比多增8100亿元，支撑因素在于企业的短期、中长期贷款表现强劲；拖累因素则是居民的短期、中长期贷款依然低迷，票据融资规模缩减；贷款存量同比增长11.2%，相比上月提升0.3个百分点。风险提示：1）经济下行导致行业资产质量压力超预期抬升。2）利率下行导致行业息差收窄超预期。3）房企现金流压力加大引发信用风险抬升。注：全文所指银行指数均为银行（中信）指数 3行业热点跟踪：营收延续下行，个体分化持续业绩综述：42家上市银行三季报披露完毕，2022年前三季度上市银行实现净利润同比增长8.0%，增速较上半年提升0.5pct。个股来看分化加剧，部分银行盈利依然保持强劲增长，大中型银行中平安（YoY+25.8%）、邮储（YoY+14.5%）、招行（YoY+14.2%）增速较快，城商行中增速较快的有杭州（YoY+31.8%）、成都（YoY+31.6%）、江苏（YoY+31.3%）。从收入端分解来看，22年前三季度营收增速较上半年收窄了2.1个百分点至2.8%，净利息收入（YoY+4.2%）和中收（YoY-0.7%）的增速均继续放缓，但考虑到3季度银行存款成本改善的效应逐步显现，利息收入降幅明显收窄。其他非息收入方面，考虑到去年同期债券交易收入基数的抬升以及3季度以来汇率波动的加大，前三季度其他非息收入同比增速（YoY-2.8%）由正转负，进一步加大了3季度整体营收的压力。上市银行2022年3季报与半年报盈利趋势比较资料来源：Wind，公司公告，平安证券研究所22H122Q1-322H122Q1-322H122Q1-322H122Q1-322H122Q1-322H122Q1-322H122Q1-3工商银行4.5%3.2%0.1%0.3%4.2%-0.1%8.8%8.4%3.1%-0.9%7.3%-5.5%4.9%5.6%建设银行7.2%7.7%-0.9%-1.8%4.7%1.0%8.0%4.1%1.0%-0.3%-4.7%-1.2%5.4%6.5%中国银行7.3%8.5%-7.8%-7.6%3.4%2.6%7.8%2.7%1.8%2.2%-0.3%-2.5%6.3%5.8%农业银行6.0%4.3%2.8%2.9%5.9%3.6%5.9%6.6%4.9%1.5%9.8%1.4%5.5%5.8%交通银行8.4%7.4%-1.2%-3.9%7.1%5.1%9.5%9.6%3.8%0.7%12.0%-1.3%4.8%5.5%邮储银行3.8%2.3%56.4%40.3%10.0%7.8%13.7%11.1%6.1%4.0%-8.0%-15.6%14.9%14.5%招商银行8.4%7.6%2.2%0.0%6.1%5.3%5.4%6.8%5.8%4.1%-1.0%-9.9%13.5%14.2%中信银行-0.3%0.6%-2.7%-1.4%2.7%3.4%8.3%9.5%1.0%1.5%-6.5%-7.2%12.0%12.8%民生银行-16.6%-16.8%-22.2%-22.4%-15.5%-16.9%8.5%5.8%-23.0%-25.2%-34.5%-38.3%-7.2%-4.8%兴业银行0.7%1.0%3.5%-3.3%6.3%4.1%23.1%23.3%1.8%-1.3%-11.3%-22.1%11.9%12.1%浦发银行1.5%0.2%0.1%-0.6%1.3%0.1%4.1%8.8%0.2%-2.8%0.8%-1.9%1.1%-2.6%光大银行1.4%1.5%-1.1%-0.8%1.8%0.4%-5.7%-1.4%4.2%0.5%1.1%-6.3%3.8%4.3%华夏银行-7.3%-6.9%15.3%18.2%0.7%0.6%4.6%8.6%-0.6%-2.3%-4.8%-8.3%5.0%5.4%平安银行7.9%8.7%-7.7%-12.0%8.7%8.7%5.1%3.2%9.9%10.7%1.5%0.7%25.6%25.8%浙商银行14.0%14.4%31.8%25.1%22.5%18.1%16.6%16.9%25.3%19.2%41.2%24.5%1.8%9.1%北京银行0.5%1.9%30.4%27.0%1.7%3.2%7.3%10.9%0.8%1.6%-5.9%-2.4%7.9%6.5%南京银行-0.6%0.3%-3.9%-8.2%16.3%16.1%13.7%18.2%17.0%15.3%19.9%2.6%20.1%21.3%宁波银行8.3%11.3%5.0%-7.9%17.6%15.2%16.3%14.6%18.0%15.4%8.2%-2.1%18.4%20.2%上海银行5.7%1.7%-18.6%-16.1%0.9%0.5%1.8%6.3%0.7%-0.7%0.5%-5.5%3.2%3.1%江苏银行14.1%12.8%14.8%12.8%14.2%14.9%9.9%18.1%15.6%14.0%-1.8%-4.8%31.2%31.3%贵阳银行10.2%11.5%-12.7%-15.1%9.5%10.5%-0.4%-0.4%13.1%14.5%36.5%38.7%0.5%0.9%杭州银行3.5%7.5%37.3%46.9%16.3%16.5%14.3%18.9%16.8%15.6%5.1%4.4%31.7%31.8%成都银行18.7%16.6%35.8%44.8%17.0%16.1%23.8%27.3%15.4%13.0%-12.1%-15.8%31.5%31.6%郑州银行8.3%8.2%-42.0%-44.9%8.9%12.3%-1.0%-1.2%11.4%15.9%22.7%29.7%3.1%2.1%青岛银行1.7%6.1%8.5%4.3%16.6%16.3%19.2%17.4%15.8%16.0%25.1%31.5%12.3%7.3%西安银行-9.8%-9.9%-23.8%-13.0%-8.5%-8.4%-3.6%-0.1%-10.2%-11.4%1.5%-4.5%-13.4%-12.4%长沙银行7.0%8.9%29.6%33.6%8.7%10.2%12.2%13.5%7.2%8.8%13.7%13.2%2.9%6.2%苏州银行4.0%7.9%18.6%17.8%8.0%11.5%16.0%17.7%4.1%8.4%-23.2%-15.2%25.1%25.9%厦门银行7.7%7.4%28.1%16.3%18.2%15.4%23.5%13.7%14.9%15.6%21.6%23.2%15.1%19.0%重庆银行-4.3%-4.9%-3.7%8.7%-7.0%-4.7%8.2%10.6%-10.9%-8.7%-27.9%-23.5%4.7%4.2%齐鲁银行16.0%12.7%71.8%67.4%19.1%17.2%9.5%10.6%22.4%19.7%32.4%20.9%18.0%19.9%兰州银行-6.5%-8.0%9.3%6.0%-3.0%-5.0%-0.7%4.1%-5.9%-10.3%-11.7%-20.0%10.5%7.4%江阴银行20.1%18.2%-15.8%-32.0%26.0%21.9%9.5%11.8%35.4%27.8%41.1%28.0%22.1%22.4%无锡银行2.6%0.9%-15.0%14.5%6.7%6.6%13.9%10.8%4.7%5.4%-16.6%-7.8%30.3%20.7%常熟银行20.8%18.7%-99.0%-97.1%18.9%18.6%16.4%14.2%20.5%21.9%22.4%18.0%20.0%25.2%苏农银行4.5%-0.5%-49.0%-39.7%6.4%6.7%2.8%4.3%7.8%8.9%-19.5%6.4%20.9%20.6%张家港行6.5%5.7%83.9%53.9%5.7%7.0%7.7%9.3%11.4%10.0%-0.8%-6.2%27.8%30.1%紫金银行-1.9%3.2%31.6%-39.8%2.7%2.0%10.9%11.9%-2.2%-3.3%-29.6%-32.1%10.1%7.2%青农商行-5.2%-4.8%9.4%-0.2%-3.1%-4.9%0.7%1.9%-4.4%-7.6%-7.5%-14.1%5.1%2.4%渝农商行-2.4%-5.0%-17.7%-20.3%1.0%-2.2%2.5%7.9%0.1%-6.3%-8.4%-17.2%11.3%5.6%瑞丰银行5.3%6.7%-69.0%-78.5%13.4%10.6%9.6%10.6%14.4%10.1%15.1%-2.4%20.4%21.3%沪农商行9.6%8.6%-13.1%-2.3%7.0%7.6%-9.1%3.1%15.3%9.6%19.4%-17.1%14.3%17.1%ALL4.5%4.2%0.7%-0.7%4.9%2.8%8.4%7.8%3.0%1.0%0.1%-5.4%7.5%8.0%六大行6.0%5.4%1.2%0.3%5.2%2.4%8.9%6.9%3.0%0.6%3.3%-2.9%6.0%6.5