请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明策略摘要美元指数冲高回落，原油反弹。节前补库背景下，中游环节库存持续去化，现实库存仍低。期现货市场反弹上涨。但预期10月补库结束后逐步迎来库存拐点。PE国产开工已恢复，PP国产开工本周亦快速恢复，继续逢高配空思路。核心观点■市场分析库存方面，石化库存55.5万吨，较前一工作日-3万吨，上游延续节前排库。基差方面，LL华北基差在+70元/吨，PP华东基差回落至在+200元/吨，PP基差回落一方面是国产开工率恢复，另一方面是下游节前补库或告一段落。原油低位背景下，LL和PP油头生产利润有所修复；而PDH制PP利润的恢复导致PP国产供应的恢复。非标价差及非标生产比例方面。HD注塑-LL价差回到0附近，HD开工率回落，形成跷跷板效应，LL排产会因此有影响而上升。PP低融共聚-PP拉丝价差近期平稳震荡，PP拉丝生产比例近期快速上升。进出口方面。汇率贬值导致进口窗口有所上移，PE和PP进口的窗口关闭，目前市场主流看法仍是等待进口窗口附近逢高配空思路。■策略（1）单边：原油带动化工系成本下移，前期节前补库背景下，中游环节库存持续去化，现实库存仍低，但预期10月补库结束后逐步迎来库存拐点。PE国产开工已恢复，PP国产开工本周亦快速恢复，继续逢高配空思路。（2）跨期：无■风险原油价格波动，下游补库持续性，汇率贬值导致的进口窗口上移。期货研究报告|聚烯烃日报2022-09-30市场反弹，聚烯烃空头震荡研究院能源化工组研究员潘翔0755-82767160panxiang@htfc.com从业资格号：F3023104投资咨询号：Z0013188梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421康远宁0755-23991175kangyuanning@htfc.com从业资格号：F3049404投资咨询号：Z0015842联系人裴紫叶15801022486peiziye@htfc.com从业资格号：F03100446投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 聚烯烃日报丨2022/09/30请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明2/13目录策略摘要.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃日度表格...............................................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构...............................................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.............................................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比........................................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润........................................................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润.....................................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................................................12图表图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开