2022年6月全球经济展望报告

AWorld Bank GroupFlagship ReportJUNE2022GlobalEconomicProspectsWORLDBANKGROUP GlobalEconomicProspects Summary of ContentsAcknowledgnForeword.Executive SummAbbreviationsChapter 1Global Outlook.Box 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risk16Box 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries24Special Focus 1Global Stagflation.Special Focus 2Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Energy Markets and Activity ...79Chapter 2Regional Outlooks91East Asia and Pacific....93Europe and Central Asia.Latin America and the Caribbc107Middle East and North Afri115South Asia123Sub-Saharan AfriStatistical Append139Selected Topic46 ContentsAcknowledgmerForewordExecutive SumnAbbreviationsChapter1Global Outlook.Summary Global context.Global trade ...Commodity markets..Global inflation.Financial developments...Major economies: Recent developments and outlook12Advanced economies..3China ....14Emerging market and developing economi15Recent developn15Outlook.0Global outlook and risks .2Global outlook.3Risks to the outlook.29Growth under alternative downside scenario33Policy challenges...Key global challenges ..3fChallenges in advanced economies35Challenges in emerging market and developing economies..36Reference:14Special Focus 1Global Stagflation51Introduction.53Evolution of inflationEvolution of growth...Echoes of the stagflation of the 1970s?...Similarities to the 1970s .vill Special Focus 1Differences from the 1970s..61End of stagflation of the 1970s and lessons for today64Aftermath of high inflation in the 1970s...64Implications for the 2020s.65Structural forces of disinflationChallenges for EMDEs..6Policy options for EMDEs.68Annex SF1.1 Methodology: Decomposing inflation70Annex SF1.2 Methodology: Estimating potential growth72Referenc.73Special Focus 2Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Energy Markets and Activity.79Introduction ..Comparison with previous energy shocks82Lessons from previous energy shocks83Implications for the global econor84Channels84Impact on global activity Policy implications ..References87Chapter 2Regional Outlooks91East Asid and Pacific ...93Recent developments ..93Outlook....94Risks96Europe and Central Asia..Recent developments99Outlook.100Risks.103LatinAmerica and the Caribbean..107Recent developments107Outlook108Risks.110Middle East and North AfricaRecent developments .115vill 116Chapter 2Outlook.Risks.118SouthAsidRecent developments .Outlook.125Risks.127Sub-Sabaran AfricaRecent developments ..Outlook.130Risks.132References136Statistical AppendixData and Forecast ConventionSelected Topics146Boxes1.1Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks.161.2Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries...24Figures1.1Global prospects51.2 Global risks and policy challenges1.3Global trade ...91.4Commodity markets.1.5Global inflation and financial developments......121.6Major economies: Recent developments and outlook....131.7Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies....15B1.1.1Regional outlook ...17B1.1.2Regional risks ....1.8Outlook in emerging market and developing economies ....1.9Per capita income in emerging market and developing economies....221.10Global outlook.23B1.2.1LICs: Recent developments .25B1.2.2LICs: Outlook and risks..261.11Intensifying geopolitical tensions ..1.12Stagflation......1.13Financial stress across emerging market and developing economies....1.14Growth under alternative downside scenarios....Ix Figures1.15Policy challenges in advanced economies ,361.16Monetary policy challenges in emerging market and developing1.17Fiscal policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies... 381.18Structural policy challenges in emerging marketand developing cconomies..40SF1.1Inflation ......SF1.2Drivers of inflation in 2020-22 .SF1.3Growth....SF1.4Developments in the 1970s and 2020s: Similarities,60SF1.5EMDE vulnerabilitiesSF1.6Developments in the 1970s and 2020s: Cyclical differencesSF1.7Developments in the 1970s and 2020s: Structural differences8"T:SEnd of stagflation of the 1970s and vulnerabilities in EMDEs..65SF1.9Long-term inflation expectations.A.SF1.1Drivers of inflation in 2020-22: Alternative inflation measure71SF2.1Commodity dependence and energy price82SF2.2Market responses to price shocks....SF2.3Implications for global economic activity ...2.1.1China: Recent developments...942.1.2EAP excluding China: Recent developments .952.1.3EAP: Outlook.2.1.4EAP: Risks.....2.2.1ECA: Recent developments.2.2.2ECA: Outlook....1012.2.3ECA: Risks ..1032.3.1LAC: Recent developments1082.3.2LAC: Outlook..2.3.3LAC: Risks.....2.4.1MNA: Recent developments .2.4.2MNA: Outlook... 1172.4.3MNA: Risks....1182.5.1SAR: Recent development1242.5.2SAR: Outlook2.5.3SAR: Risks.2.6.1SSA: Recent developments1302.6.2SSA: Outlook1312.6.3SSA: Risks133 Tables1.1Real GDP...4B1.2.1Low-income country forecasts.271.2 Emerging market and developing economies432.1.1East Asia and Pacific forecast summary...982.1.2East Asia and Pacific country forecasts2.2.1Europe