重新提交H股上市申请，融资助力免税业务进一步扩张

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (601888) Equity Research·Company Research·Travel Retail II 1 / 9 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Re-submitting application for H-share listing, CTG Duty Free is expected to further expand its duty-free business Buy（Maintain） Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 67,676 70,898 110,428 129,590 Growth (YoY %) 29% 5% 56% 17% Net profit (RMB mn) 9,654 9,460 14,694 16,320 Growth (YoY %) 57% -2% 55% 11% EPS (RMB) 4.94 4.85 7.53 8.36 P/E (X) 45.53 46.46 29.91 26.93 Investment Thesis ◼ Event: 30 June, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (hereinafter referred to as CTG Duty Free) announced its submission for listing application to Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time, re-starting HK IPO process after announcing suspension of overseas listing in December 2021. ◼ Re-submitting application for H-share listing, CTG Duty Free is expected to further expand its duty-free business. 11 Nov, CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) approved CTGDF's plan to issue no more than 195 million overseas-listed shares, i.e., no more than 10% of total shares. The fund raised mainly aims for five purposes: consolidate domestic channels, expand overseas footprint, improve supply-chain efficiency, upgrade information technology systems, and further improve membership system and marketing. ◼ In 2021, CTG Duty Free accounted for 24.6% of market share in global travel retail industry and demonstrated continuously improving scale advantage as industry leader. According to Frost & Sullivan, CTG Duty Free's market share in global travel retail industry reached 24.6% in 2021, up by 2pcts from 22.6% in 2020. And global ranking by market share remains the same since then. Continuous increase in global market share will bring continuous optimization in CTGDF's supply chain. ◼ CTG Duty Free took 86.0% market share in Chinese duty-free market in 2021, maintaining absolute dominance despite a market share squeeze from competition. According to Frost & Sullivan, competitive landscape of Chinese duty-free market saw great changes in 2021. Due to the issuance of extra Hainan's island duty-free license, CTG Duty Free's market share declined by 6.3pcts to 86% from 92.3% in 2020. Even so, CTG Duty Free still has significant scale advantages over its rivals who only occupy single-digit market share, and we expect to see its market share rebound in the next two years thanks to the opening of two new stores in Hainan. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating：Relaxation of pandemic control policy and resumption of international flights should be helpful for re-acceleration of duty-free market expansion. With established market position, CTG Duty Free will put new duty-free shops into operation in 2022/2023 and regain market share. Amid pandemic disturbance in the near term, CTG duty free is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of cross-province and outbound travel in the medium and long term. We project net profit to reach RMB9.46/14.69/16.32bn in 2022-2024, with P/E at 46x/30x/27x respectively. Considering the dilution of H-share issuing, the P/E valuation would be at 51x/33x/30x in 2022-2024. Maintain "buy" rating. ◼ Risks: Sporadic pandemic resurgence; Lower-than-expected recovery of consumption willingness. [Table_PicQuote] Price Performance [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 220.91 52-week Range (RMB) 156.10/293.45 P/B (X) 13.44 Market Cap (RMB mn) 431,321.37 Basic Data data BVPS (RMB) 16.43 Liabilities/assets (%) 33.48 Total Issued Shares (mn) 1,952.48 Shares outstanding (mn) 1,952.48 [Table_Report] Related reports 《中国中免(601888)：白云机场免税补充协议落地增厚业绩，关注下半年疫后复苏及标杆项目开业》 2022-06-27 《中国中免(601888)：2021年报及2022年一季报点评：利润率环比大幅改善，2022年经营目标稳中求进》 2022-04-24 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees吴劲草 (Jingcao Wu) and石旖瑄 (Yixuan Shi). [Table_Author] 2 August 2022 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -44%-39%-34%-29%-24%-19%-14%-9%-4%1%2021/07/052021/11/032022/03/042022/07/03CTG Duty FreeCSI300 中国中免（601888） 证券研究报告·公司研究·旅游零售II 2 / 9 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 重新提交H股上市申请，融资助力免税业务进一步扩张 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 67,676 70,898 110,428 129,590 同比 29% 5% 56% 17% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 9,654 9,460 14,694 16,320 同比 57% -2% 55% 11% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 4.94 4.85 7.53 8.36 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 45.53 46.46 29.91 26.93 投资要点 ◼ 事件： 2022年6月30日晚，中国中免发布《关于重新向香港联交所递交境外上市外资股（H股）上市申请并刊发申请资料的公告》，继2021年12月公告暂缓境外上市后重启赴港IPO。 ◼ 重新提交境外上市申请，融资助力业务进一步扩张。公司已于2021年11月11日获得中国证监会核准新发行不超过1.95亿股境外上市外资股，即不超过总股本的10%。公司拟募资用于巩固国内渠道、扩展海外渠道、改善供应链效率、升级信息技术系统、市场推广和进一步完善会员体系等五大用途。 ◼ 2021年中国中免全球旅游零售市场份额24.6%，龙头规模优势持续提升。更新后的招股书包含了2021较为完整的行业数据及最新研判。据弗若斯特沙利文统计，从全球格局来看，2021年排序未发生变化，中免集团2021市场份额24.6%，较2020年的22.