Equity Research·Industry Research·Retail Retail Industry Research 1 / 33 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] How will travel-related consumer industries recover in the post-pandemic era - Lessons from U.S. consumer market Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ Covid-19, beginning in late 2019, has completely changed lifestyle of residents around the world, and significantly affected people’s travel behavior and various industries closely related to travel. This report intends to review the U.S. consumer market and find out 1) How travel-related industries are affected by the Covid-19, 2) Recovery status of aviation, tourism, retail and travel-retail industries, and 3) Financial indicators and future prospects of relevant listed firms. We expect to provide some implications for the post-pandemic recovery outlook of China’s travel-related consumer industries. ◼ Three stages of Covid-19 control measures in the U.S.: 1) early 2020 - June 2020: complete entry restrictions, 2) June 2020 - late 2021: relaxation of policy, 3) late 2021 - now: full lifting of entry restrictions. ◼ U.S. residents' travel tendency: Short-distance travel increased in the post-pandemic era. Before the Covid-19, Americanswho traveled 1-3 miles on a daily basis accounted for the largest proportion. Due to international and interstate population movement restriction as well as working from home mode after the outbreak of the pandemic, the proportion of Americans whose daily travel distance fell within one mile significantly increased and dominated. ◼ Summary of the post-pandemic recovery characteristics of the U.S. travel-related consumer industries: 1) The overall recovery of travel-related consumption in the U.S. is more strongly correlated with the relaxation of travel restrictions. Although new variants affected people’s travel willingness in the short term, the U.S travel-related business has resumed continuously as travel restrictions continued to be lifted since June 2020. 2) Degree of Covid-19 impact: necessities and some optional consumer staples benefited, such as supermarkets and grocery stores offering daily necessities; most travel-related discretionary consumption suffered, of which the international travel related was most seriously impacted. 3) Speed of recovery: some experiential categories such as short-distance trip saw compensatory consumption with relatively rapid recovery; long-distance tour represented by Hawaii island tour exhibited consumption repatriation; other local discretionary consumption will gradually recover to the pre-pandemic level in 1-1.5 years; consumption related to international flights and trade is the slowest with only 70% of recovery. ◼ Recommendation: 1) China Tourism Group Duty Free, the leading duty-free company benefiting from consumption repatriation and high prosperity of Hainan's duty-free market when domestic travel is less restricted; 2) Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai, Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group, and Haikou Meilan International Airport, whose business are positively related to the prosperity of Hainan's duty-free market; 3) Shanghai International Airport, Beijing Airport, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, which will benefit from the resumption of international flights. ◼ Risks：Worse-than-expected macroeconomic recovery; Reduced consumption willingness of residents; lower-than-expected trip recovery due to sporadic pandemic resurgence. [Table_PicQuote] Industry performance [Table_Report] Related reports 《智能投影仪和扫地机器人618预售额高增，极米，科沃斯等品牌领先优势进一步扩大》 2022-06-05 《2022年618化妆品预售数据速递：华熙生物、贝泰妮、珀莱雅等国货龙头表现突出》 2022-05-29 《海南免税企业集群起底深度梳理》 2022-05-25 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees吴劲草 (Jingcao Wu) and石旖瑄 (Yixuan Shi). [Table_Author] 20 July 2022 Research Analyst Shirui Ouyang (852) 3892 3120 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk Valuation of Key Companies (As of June 7, 2022) Stock Code Company Market Cap (RMB bn) Closing Price（RMB） EPS PE Rating 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 601888 CTG Duty Free 360.82 184.80 4.94 5.55 7.71 37.38 33.30 23.97 Outperform 600009 SH Intl Airport 93.65 48.60 -0.89 -1.12 1.12 - - 43.39 Outperform Data Source: Wind, Soochow Securities (HK) -28%-25%-22%-19%-16%-13%-10%-7%-4%-1%2021/06/072021/10/062022/02/042022/06/05RetailCSI 300 证券研究报告·行业研究·商贸零售 商贸零售行业研究 2 / 33 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 免税行业专题（二）：以第一大消费市场美国为例，出行消费产业链如何疫后复苏？ 增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 专题概要：始于2019年底的新冠疫情改变了世界各地的居民生活轨迹，对不管是居民出行行为本身还是与出行密切相关的各行各业均形成了重大的影响。我们试图在本文复盘作为全球第一大消费市场的美国：（1）出行相关行业是如何受到疫情影响的；（2）当前航空、旅游、零售及旅游零售行业复苏状况如何；（3）各行业上市公司财务指标和未来展望如何。希望能够为全球第二大消费市场——中国的出行相关消费产业链疫后复苏展望提供一些参考。 ◼ 美国疫情防控政策变化经历三阶段：（1）2020年初-2020年6月：全面入境限制；（2）2020年6月-2021年底：政策松绑；（3）2021年底-至今：入境限制放开。 ◼ 美国居民出行倾向：疫情后民众出行结构呈现短程化特征。疫情前，美国民众日常出行距离在1-3英里的人次占比最大。疫情出现后，由于国际和州际人口流动受限、居家办公成为普遍的工作模式